Colleen Hanabusa turned a special election loss at the hands of Charles Djou into a general election victory in less than six months. She did it by winning over Ed Case supporters to claim regions that Djou controlled in May.

Civil Beat’s geographical analysis of the 1st Congressional District election results shows where Hanabusa made her gains as she turned a 19-7 Republican advantage into a 20-6 edge of her own in Hawaii House districts won.

The following chart is sorted from highest Hanabusa percentage to lowest.

District-by-District Results in the Congress Election

District Region Hanabusa Djou
22 Moiliili, McCully, Kaimuki 59.9% 40.1%
20 St. Louis, Palolo, Wilhelmina Rise 59.8% 40.2%
24 Manoa, Manoa Valley, University 59.8% 40.2%
29 Sand Island, Mokauea, Kapalama 58.9% 41.1%
30 Kalihi Valley, Fort Shafter 57.7% 42.3%
35 Pearl City, Waipahu 57.4% 42.6%
26 Pacific Heights, Pauoa, Punchbowl 57% 43%
36 Pearl City, Momilani, Pacific Palisades 57% 43%
34 Newtown, Waiau, Pearl City, Waimalu 56.5% 43.5%
25 Tantalus, Makiki, McCully 56.4% 43.6%
21 Kaimuki, Waikiki, Diamond Head 56.1% 43.9%
27 Nuuanu, Puunui, Liliha, Alewa Heights 55.1% 44.9%
33 Aiea, Halawa, Aiea Heights 54.2% 45.8%
31 Moanalua Valley, Moanalua, Salt Lake 52.6% 47.4%
42 Waipahu, Honouliuli, West Loch, Ewa 52.5% 47.5%
32 Pearlridge, Aiea, Pearl Harbor 51.9% 48.1%
37 Mililani, Waipio Gentry 51.7% 48.3%
41 Waipahu, Village Park, Waikele 50.9% 49.1%
28 Palama, Downtown, Chinatown 50.8% 49.2%
23 Waikiki, Ala Moana 50.6% 49.4%
38 Mililani, Mililani Mauka 49.1% 50.9%
19 Waialae, Diamond Head, Kahala 48.9% 51.1%
18 Niu Valley, Aina Haina, Kahala 46.8% 53.2%
17 Kalama Valley, Hawaii Kai 45.9% 54.1%
43 Ewa Beach, Iroquois Point, Puuloa 45.7% 54.3%
39 Wahiawa, Whitmore Village, Poamoho 45% 55%

Source: Civil Beat analysis of election results

Two days after the special election in May, the Honolulu Advertiser published a story showing that Djou’s appeal stretched outside of East Honolulu, his hometown and a historic Republican enclave.

Since then, the tables have turned. Hanabusa made gains on Djou in every single state House district — all but five of which were in double digits. The most dramatic gains were made in areas formerly part of Case country.

Case won just one state House district — Manoa’s No. 24, with 38.4 percent of the vote. Hanabusa turned a 32.7 to 28.9 deficit against Djou in Manoa in May into a 59.8 to 40.2 win there in November. Next door, in District 25, Case took 33.7 percent of the vote. Hanabusa turned an eight-point loss into a 13-point win.

Civil Beat looked at the areas where Case performed well — the places where the highest proportion of voters was up for grabs Tuesday. We looked at the difference between Djou’s margin over Hanabusa in May and at Hanabusa’s margin of victory Tuesday in each of those districts.

The following chart is sorted from highest Case percentage to lowest. It shows that areas where Case did well provided Hanabusa with large gains against Djou between May and November, as was indicated by the first Civil Beat general election poll conducted on Oct. 11. The “rank” column compares the size of the gains from district to district.

District-by-District: What Happened to the Case Vote

District Region Case % Case
Rank
Hanabusa Gains Gains
Rank
24 Manoa, Manoa Valley, University 38.4% 1 23.4% 1
25 Tantalus, Makiki, McCully 33.7% 2 21.0% 4
20 St. Louis, Palolo, Wilhelmina Rise 30.9% 3 19.3% 5
19 Waialae, Diamond Head, Kahala 30.7% 4 16.4% 8
21 Kaimuki, Waikiki, Diamond Head 30.0% 5 21.7% 3
23 Waikiki, Ala Moana 29.8% 6 22.3% 2
26 Pacific Heights, Pauoa, Punchbowl 28.9% 7 18.1% 6
28 Palama, Downtown, Chinatown 28.7% 8 13.3% 15
18 Niu Valley, Aina Haina, Kahala 28.5% 9 15.1% 10
22 Moiliili, McCully, Kaimuki 28.2% 10 15.5% 9
27 Nuuanu, Puunui, Liliha, Alewa Heights 27.8% 11 12.2% 17
31 Moanalua Valley, Moanalua, Salt Lake 27.8% 12 11.9% 18
35 Pearl City, Waipahu 27.6% 13 8.6% 26
33 Aiea, Halawa, Aiea Heights 27.4% 14 13.4% 14
34 Newtown, Waiau, Pearl City, Waimalu 27.2% 15 14.9% 11
17 Kalama Valley, Hawaii Kai 27.0% 16 17.5% 7
36 Pearl City, Momilani, Pacific Palisades 26.4% 17 12.5% 16
41 Waipahu, Village Park, Waikele 26.2% 18 9.7% 22
38 Mililani, Mililani Mauka 26.2% 19 13.8% 13
32 Pearlridge, Aiea, Pearl Harbor 26.0% 20 11.8% 20
30 Kalihi Valley, Fort Shafter 25.8% 21 11.6% 21
29 Sand Island, Mokauea, Kapalama 25.5% 22 9.1% 25
37 Mililani, Waipio Gentry 25.1% 23 14.0% 12
42 Waipahu, Honouliuli, West Loch, Ewa 24.5% 24 9.5% 24
39 Wahiawa, Whitmore Village, Poamoho 24.4% 25 9.6% 23
43 Ewa Beach, Iroquois Point, Puuloa 22.6% 26 11.9% 19

Source: Civil Beat analysis of election results

House District numbers can be seen on this map. They are the black numbers not inside a box. The numbers inside boxes are Senate districts. The pink numbers are U.S. congressional districts.

Source: Hawaii Office of Elections

About the Authors