Thursday marks the next phase of Hawaii’s 2020 pandemic odyssey: the great experiment on whether requiring people coming into the state to test negative for the coronavirus within 72 hours before their arrival will a) keep the spread of the virus in Hawaii to a level of infections, hospitalizations and deaths that the state is OK with, and b) bring back tourism at a level high enough to revive and sustain hotel jobs, stores, restaurants and airlines.

Despite the mumbled assurances of Gov. David Ige that the state is ready to do this thing, the whole endeavor smells risky.

The pre-travel testing plan is better than nothing. It is better than taking people’s temperature at the airport (because, as every mom knows, a dose of Tylenol can bring down a fever in 30 minutes.)

But it is nowhere near foolproof. An incoming passenger could take a COVID-19 test, get a negative result, and spend the next three days going to maskless parties, running around town kissing people goodbye, or doing any number of risky things before getting on the plane asymptomatic but infected with the virus.

The chance of the virus riding in with a pre-tested passenger might be small, but it’s not zero. Remember when the goal used to be zero?  Well, now we’re at the point where a total of 100 or more new cases a day isn’t supposed to scare anyone because we’ve decided we have to get back to business as usual. Reality didn’t change, but perception sure did.

The perception of a mandatory 14-day quarantine for incoming passengers has sure changed, at least from the governor’s point of view. When Ige instituted a mandatory quarantine for all incoming passengers, we were meant to believe that it was a reasonable, effective approach to keeping more cases of the virus at bay. In reality, it was merely a suggestion to visitors and almost impossible to widely enforce.

Lt. Gov Josh Green said last week, regarding Kauai County’s plan to have visitors sit in their hotel for 72 hours and then get a second negative COVID-19 test before they could go run free on the island, that it wasn’t going to work because no one would come to Hawaii to sit in quarantine for three or four days.

No kidding.

From the beginning, Hawaii’s response to the pandemic has been marked by half-measures, hopeful thinking, and plans that nobody bothered to think through all the way to the real-life details.

Here we are again. Nobody knew the details of Ige’s plans for this big tourism reopening until Tuesday afternoon­, not quite the 11th hour, but still, pretty last-minute. He called it “comprehensive” and “the most advanced in the nation” despite it being cobbled together after intense pressure and criticism from the neighbor islands, and despite some details still in the “we’re in discussions” phase.

At this point, Ige’s abysmal leadership is no surprise to anyone. The neighbor island mayors have gotten to the point where they don’t even attempt to hide the fact that they just try to work around him, like water flowing around a rock blocking the stream.

At least now we know it is possible to take neighbor island trips to Kauai and Maui and avoid quarantine with a pre-travel negative COVID-19 test. Now we know Mayor Harry Kim, who is on his way out, is still a stubborn badass who doesn’t like anybody telling him what to do.

There is an undeniable risk that “Safe Travels Hawaii” will all fall apart. Nobody is hoping for that, but the anxiety is palpable. Tourists could stay away in droves. COVID-19 could pack a big rolling suitcase and island-hop. Even if it all works out, it might not work out at a level that is sustainable.

Pandemic unemployment hasn’t just hit Hawaii, and vacation money is no longer burning a hole in people’s pockets. We might be right back to couch surfers and high-end vacation rentals, those visitors who eschew hotel rooms and Waikiki shops and restaurants. The idea of a second test upon arrival has turned into a screening available for those who volunteer. Volunteering for a nose swab sounds even less likely than quarantining inside a hotel room.

As Hawaii Tourism Authority President and CEO John DeFries put it, “This is an imperfect scenario being executed by imperfect people who have one thing in common – aloha for this state.”

OK, when he said it, it sounded better than looking at those words in print. He made it sound brave, not iffy. But so much of “reopening” to tourism is iffy, and when pressed on this point, everyone in charge goes back to the same old talking point: wear a mask.

That’s all we’ve got, two layers of cotton with elastic ear straps. Not our leaders. Not a medical miracle. Not a sturdy plan in place. Just wear your little mask and hope for the best.