Spending on political ads is set to shatter national records this year, but the trend doesn’t carry over to the islands.

AdImpact, a data tracking firm, projects campaign spending to reach a whopping $10.69 billion this election cycle, a 19% increase from the 2019-2020 election cycle. Despite this surge, Hawaii’s campaign spending remains modest. Local candidates are spending less than a third of what they did in recent past elections.

Nationally, the presidential election accounts for less than half of the projected ad spend at $2.68 billion, with congressional and state/local races each expected to surpass $4 billion. However, less than 0.13% of these funds are projected to reach the Hawaii media market.

Locally, candidates for state and local races have spent only $1.2 million on advertising, according to the Campaign Spending Commission, reflecting less competitive races compared to the contentious gubernatorial primary in 2022 and the mayoral race in 2020.

During the 2022 gubernatorial primary, candidates spent a significant amount on advertising, with Josh Green alone spending $1.2 million and his closest challenger, Vicky Cayetano, spending $2.6 million at this point in the election.

A newer approach, digital advertising, can be effective under certain circumstances, according to Andy Winer, a veteran political consultant who was instrumental in Green’s campaign.

Digital adversiting is particularly useful for building name recognition, especially early in an election cycle, Winer explained by email. For instance, in Green’s successful 2018 campaign for lieutenant governor, digital advertising helped build his name recognition on Oahu and Maui, giving the Big Island candidate a strategic advantage as the primary heated up.

Winer utilizes a technique known as geofencing to target digital ads effectively. Geofencing creates a virtual boundary around a specific geographic area to deliver unique ads to individuals within that boundary. This method, combined with the vast amounts of data collected by companies like Meta, allows campaigns to precisely target their audience based on factors like geography, age, gender, income levels, job titles and interests.

“I love the ability to geofence and feed up ads in a very targeted way where appropriate and to assess which ads are being viewed,” Winer said.

He also favors using social media ads and over-the-top advertising for digital targeting. OTT advertising delivers ads on streaming platforms like Netflix, Hulu and Disney+, while connected TV advertising targets streaming devices like Apple TV or Chromecast. Both OTT and CTV ads can target viewers based on their geography, interests and demographics.

Despite the growing use of digital tools, traditional media remains dominant. According to AdImpact, broadcast television ads will continue to be the primary venue for campaign advertising, accounting for over half of the total spending nationally. CTV ads and digital ads (from Meta and Google) are projected to see $1.49 billion and $1.1 billion in spending, respectively.

Winer believes the same is true here.

“For Hawaii, I remain old school when it comes to statewide, islandwide or congressional races,” he said. “These campaigns require an adequate TV budget and recognize that radio still has a place in campaigns especially on the neighbor islands over the last six to eight weeks of a campaign. For state House and Senate races, I still believe in the value of targeted mail with geofenced digital providing some amount of backup if the budget permits.”

“It’s a cheap way to do GOTV (get out the vote), but I see almost no benefit in using for persuasion or fundraising in Hawaii.”

Political consultant Andy Winer, on text banking

Another digital tool gaining traction is text banking, which involves sending personalized messages directly to voters’ mobile phones. Text banking has surged in popularity due to its low cost and high likelihood of being seen by voters. In 2022, Americans received 15 billion political texts, and this number is expected to increase this year.

In past interviews, the chairs of the state Democratic and Republican parties have confirmed that their parties will utilize text banking during this election cycle.

Over the past month, I’ve received a barrage of messages from Democratic groups asking which vice presidnetial candidate I’d like Kamala Harris to pick, asking “why won’t you sign our pledge to vote for Kamala Harris?,” a request for funds to “humiliate the Trump-Vance ticket,” a message from Nancy Pelosi reminding me that “health care, child care, social security, our Democracy — its all on the line.” I also received a message “From Trump” reminding me that he “will always love you for supporting me.”

The effectiveness of text banking depends on its implementation.

“Over the past few years, open rates for text banking have dropped off as a result of overuse,” Winer said. “It’s a cheap way to do GOTV (get out the vote), but I see almost no benefit in using for persuasion or fundraising in Hawaii.”

Ultimately, the same is true for most digital solutions. Geotargeting with digital TV ads and social media is most effective when a candidate and their team know the district well enough to craft personalized content. If they do the groundwork, it is a valuable addition to traditional campaigning.

A House member running for the Senate might use geotargeted social media ads in areas needing name recognition and send get-out-the-vote texts to supportive precincts.

A new candidate could highlight her alumni status by targeting ads to her school district or showcase community work in specific neighborhoods.

But on its own, digital advertising is likely to be insufficient.