I planned to write about how the Legislature will manage the ever-increasing possibility that President Donald Trump will dismantle the U.S. Department of Education.

But as I asked around, I found myself more intrigued by the general sense of uncertainty pervading the decision-making process. Everything from Medicaid to agriculture grants is up in the air. In response, the state budget has become less a reflection of vision and more of survival.

Every session, lawmakers introduce new ideas. Not all of them are transformative, but some are. A few would make our tax system fairer. Others would build more homes, expand access to child care or tackle our cost-of-living crisis.

I’ve written before about proposals that would update tax credits so families don’t need multiple jobs to stay afloat or initiatives that would prioritize food, education and community safety. These ideas haven’t gone away. But many are on hold.

Because, right now, no one really knows what we’ll be able to afford.

A Quarter Of Hawaiʻi’s Budget Comes From Feds

Nationally, federal funds make up one-third of the average state budget. Our state budget is less reliant on federal funds. The governor’s proposed budget for the next two years requests $20.5 billion each year. A little more than a quarter of that would come from federal sources.

Of course, more than $5 billion is still a lot of money, and we use it for critical needs like health, education and infrastructure. Yet recent actions from the Trump administration, from multi-agency funding freezes to court-defying executive orders, have shaken any sense of predictability.

Federal uncertainty is only part of the problem. Last month, the state Council on Revenues, which provides the forecast that the Legislature uses to gauge how much money is available each year, revised its projections downward for this year and next by $140 million and $200 million, respectively. To make matters worse, the council made these determinations before the president announced the details of his tariff scheme, creating market turmoil and a serious threat of recession.

The picture could be bleaker when the council next meets in May.

As a result, lawmakers are being cautious. They’re still trying to move forward on priorities like food security, education and health care, but they’re doing it with their backs against a wall. Instead of bold new proposals, the 2025 budget is starting to look more like a contingency plan if the state needs to fill in the gaps.

That’s why House leaders have proposed setting aside $200 million in the state’s rainy day fund. It’s also why the Senate cut over $500 million from the governor’s budget request. However, if federal dollars disappear, some programs simply can’t be fully funded at the state level without massive disruption to other programs.

Medicaid, for example, is mostly federally funded. Nationwide, the federal government covers nearly 70% of the program’s cost. Hawaii’s Department of Human Services planned to receive $3 billion in federal funds to deliver those services. That funding is now vulnerable, as Congress debates cuts and the Trump administration pushes to reduce support for working families.

If those funds are lost, the entirety of the rainy day fund wouldn’t be enough to cover a full year of Medicaid costs alone.

No Time For Transformative Thinking

How do lawmakers adequately plan for that? They don’t. Right now, they’re bracing for impact without knowing where the storm will hit.

And that’s the reality facing the states as the Trump administration haphazardly dismantles federal agencies and slashes funding for long-existing programs without warning. Typically, states count on the federal government to honor its commitments. But lately, even programs already funded by Congress — like agriculture and climate grants — have been frozen or redirected.

It’s disruptive and demoralizing. And it makes the job of building a responsible budget almost impossible. Lawmakers can’t budget for what might disappear. There are simply too many possibilities.

Under normal circumstances, our state’s budget should reflect our highest values and provide a framework to improve our quality of life. But, as the federal government destabilizes the systems we’ve long relied on, the focus must be on keeping things from falling apart.

It’s not glamorous. It’s not transformative. But it’s necessary.