The idea for the get-out-the-vote rally on July 15 came from the candidate’s wife.

By holding the event at William P. Jarrett Middle School in Pālolo, reasoned Ku‘ulani Keohokalole, voters might be inspired by the connection to William Paul Jarrett (1877-1929), a Native Hawaiian Honolulu sheriff and a congressional delegate for the Territory of Hawaiʻi.

“We need a voice to make sure Hawaiʻi is heard,” the candidate himself, Jarrett Keohokalole, said to an enthusiastic audience in the school auditorium.

Hawaiʻi is not being heard in Washington, D.C., argued Keohokalole and other speakers, including former Gov. Neil Abercrombie, because the incumbent is not listening to his constituents.

“Time for you to go, old man,” declared Abercrombie, 88, about the 73-year-old Ed Case, who holds the same 1st Congressional District seat that Abercrombie once held. Keohokalole, he insisted, has tapped into a strong desire for change.

Hawaiʻi will know soon enough whether Keohokalole, the 42-year-old state senator, has what it takes to do what has only been done once since statehood in 1959: unseat a congressional incumbent.

His campaign is aggressively trying to drum up enthusiasm with rallies like the one last week while also criticizing Case’s voting record, deploying surrogates like Abercrombie to shout his praises and alluding to public opinion polls hinting that a lot of CD1 voters are undecided.

I have seen no credible polls showing a close race. But, as a political analyst, I have been getting a lot of casual inquiries (including just a couple of days ago when I was swimming in the ocean!) asking me what once seemed unthinkable: Can Jarrett beat Ed?

I don’t know. But I’ve rarely seen such excitement for a local congressional campaign. Tulsi Gabbard’s first run for the 2nd Congressional District, when she steamrolled the household name Mufi Hannemann in 2012, comes to mind.

(Boy, does that seem like a long time ago, eh?)

The same day Keohokalole held his school rally, Case was in D.C. doing what he does from time to time: voting the opposite of his Democratic colleague, Rep. Jill Tokuda. In this instance she joined former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and left-wing darling Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and 100 other Dems in agreeing to an amendment from Thomas Massie, a Republican, to cut off U.S. aid to Israel.

Native Hawaiians on The Hill 2026. Fully welcomed the first coordinated annual visit to Congress of our various Native Hawaiian organizations to share and align efforts with Hawaii’s Congressional delegation and educate our colleagues and staff on our Native Hawaiian community… pic.twitter.com/BRGy6KH0IW

— Rep. Ed Case (@RepEdCase) July 16, 2026

Case was among the 98 voting against the measure, along with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

That same week Case also met in his office on The Hill with union officials to discuss collective bargaining rights and the proposed LNG project for Hawaiʻi. He also met with the Indonesia ambassador to the U.S. and the U.S. ambassador to New Zealand “on Pacific issues and Hawaii’s central role,” according to official press releases and social media posts.

Case joined James Moylan of Guam in reintroducing a bill to boost affordable housing nationwide in areas designated for transit-oriented development “as much of the area along Skyline is.”

To be sure, there were also campaign developments. Before the week started I received a mailer from Case (“Real Solutions in Challenging Times”) stressing the need for seniority in a chamber of 435 people and “a rare seat” on the powerful appropriations committee.

The week ended with Case sending me and every other CD1 registered voter whose phone contact he has a text: “Primary election ballots arrive soon. … I humbly ask for your vote.”

So, Case is campaigning. But I have not heard of a rally for him, nor seen him sign-waving, nor observed his campaign signs nor even saw someone wearing a T-shirt with his name on it. I have witnessed all that from Keohokalole.

This race has often been described as a competition between experience and new blood. In many ways, however, the CD1 race also boils down to the Campaigner versus the Congressman.

‘Where’s Ed?’

In an email Sunday, Case responded to my inquiry about how he is getting out the vote.

“My re-election strategy is to continue to work as hard as I can to do the best job I can in the job I have,” he wrote. “In addition to that being my responsibility, it shows voters what I’ve actually done, what I’m actually doing, and what I actually will do for our country, our Hawai’i and my constituents, rather than just empty promises.”

Case also pointed out that it’s a very busy time in Congress, especially on the appropriations committee where he’s a member. The House has been meeting to craft budget legislation ahead of the end of the current fiscal year Sept. 30. The House also is in recess most of August.

“And so that has been and must be my focus,” he explained. “In my limited time back home, I have continued with my district work, including meeting with whoever wants to meet with me, going out into my district to understand and work with a wide variety of community groups, and, my favorite, my Walk Stories, where I walk through a business district or neighborhood with no advance plan, talking story with the folks I meet along the way, answering their questions and understanding their concerns and where and how I can help.”

On the campaign side, Case is also advertising on TV, radio, print, social and digital media. He has interviewed with local media, including Civil Beat, although he declined our invitation to participate in a recorded candidate forum, as he did with other local media, leaving Keohokalole to go solo.

“And when I have time back from D.C. done coffee hour-style events and spot sign-waving and canvassing,” he said. 

At the Keohokalole rally, however, Case fatigue from some longtime Democrats was in evidence.

“I’m not voting for him because what he did by voting for the SAVE Act,” Juliet Begley told me, referring to the bill (currently stalled in the Senate) she believes would threaten women’s access to voting. “He just lost me completely, and that was the end of that. And quite frankly, people agree with me on my Facebook page. I’ve never had 200 comments about something I posted before — 180 shares. I mean, all over the island.”

“We would have loved to have had Ed on our strike line in 2024,” Cade Watanabe, financial secretary-treasurer for Unite Here Local 5, told me. “We would have loved to have seen him on our strike line when our healthcare workers were on strike in Kaiser in 2025. Every other member of our congressional delegation was either on the line or actively supporting our working families when we needed it the most. That’s a significant, very specific thing. Strikes are an opportunity for us to really see which side are you on.”

What I am not seeing directed against Keohokalole, but what has been an absolute barrage against Case this election, is a lot of anger on social media. I don’t know if it’s coordinated, as much of it is anonymous. But it is unsparing.

Here’s a recent screen shot from Instagram:

Appropriations Vs. Jingles

To promote his record, on June 29 Case’s office sent out an email with detailed information and links on his legislative record since returning to Congress in 2019. (He previously represented the 2nd Congressional District from 2002 to 2007.)

Case also pointed out that he was ranked No. 4 for House Democrats in securing community project funding.

“Overall, for the five years Congress has authorized CPFs, I’ve gained approval of 74 district projects for $326 million,” he wrote.

Whether anyone will actually take the time to read all that is an open question. It’s much easier to digest the bumper stickers at the Keohokalole rally that read simply “Replace Ed Case,” or the mini-fliers listing “7 Reasons We Cannot Trust Ed Case” (i.e., “tried to unseat revered late US Senator Dan Akaka”).

Then there are the clever social media memes like a “Where’s Ed?” post playing off of Where’s Waldo? In this case, it’s about Case’s refusal to debate Keohokalole.

Finally, the jingle intended to help voters pronounce “Keohokalole” has proved a hit. His wife sang it at the rally before introducing her husband.

While Keohokalole has managed to come close to Case in raising campaign funds, it’s important to remember that Case had never had a competitive race for his two House seats. Since 2020, he won his primary and general elections in landslides.

He also appeals to a lot of Republicans, who are able to pull the Democratic ballot in primaries and vote for whom they wish in the general. We may be considered a blue state, but there are a lot of conservative voters in the islands. Donald Trump took 40% of the 2024 presidential election on Oʻahu, and CD1 has the bulk of Oʻahu voters.

It’s important to note that there are three other Democrats running in the CD1 primary. There is also a Republican, Green and Libertarian in the hunt. If history is a guide, however, they are not likely to win.

Only one congressional incumbent has lost reelection in Hawaiʻi: Republican Charles Djou in 2010.

Interestingly, Case had a role in that race, too, as did Abercrombie. Case and fellow Democrat Colleen Hanabusa finished behind Djou in a large, winner-take-all special election to finish out the congressional term of Abercrombie, who resigned to run for governor that year.

That was in May that year. A few days later Case stunned Hawaiʻi Democrats at their party convention by saying he would not oppose Hanabusa in the Sept. 18 primary.

(Yep, that’s how long ago that was; the primary in those days was in September, not August.)

Hanabusa handily won both the primary and the general, sending Djou packing after just seven months in Washington.

If Case loses on Aug. 8, it would be truly historic.