Is it too soon to talk about 2022? Not at all.
In less than a year Hawaii voters will go to the polls to select candidates in the primary (which is Saturday, Aug. 13), an election that often proves to be more important than the general because our state is dominated by one political party.
The job openings include the state’s top two elective offices, governor and lieutenant governor.
After talking with a lot of smart politico types around the state and beyond — some on the record, some off, so they could talk freely — a field is beginning to emerge. Here’s the latest.
Governor
Is there anybody in Hawaii that does not know Josh Green wants to be governor?
Just in the past 10 days our very ambitious lieutenant governor was featured in a big Honolulu Star-Advertiser story with a headline stating that he is “unapologetic” in his quest to distance himself from and to ultimately succeed the term-limited, unpopular incumbent Gov. David Ige.
The lead photo showed a masked, empathetic Green kneeling to listen to a man with a walker at a hygiene center for homeless people. It looks like a campaign advertisement.
Green, who has raised the most money in the 2022 gubernatorial race so far, is the obvious frontrunner, even though he has not officially declared he is running. (He is.)
Kirk Caldwell, the former Honolulu mayor, badly trails Green in the hunt for cash and is banking on Green somehow self-imploding before election day.
It’s possible. By his own admission, Green shoots from the hip, which could get him in trouble. But Green, a medical doctor — is there anyone in Hawaii who has not seen Josh Green in his hospital scrubs? — is a leading voice in the Covid-19 fight.
(For months the Department of Health has been announcing the latest Covid case count at noon. At some point Green began publicly sharing the case numbers at 10:30 a.m., generating him breaking news and tons of social media. Now the DOH is announcing the results at 9 a.m. No word yet whether Green will be tweeting and instagramming case counts at 7:30 a.m. going forward.)
Green was also recently featured in a flattering profile in The Washington Post as well as in The Hill, where he warned of another possible lockdown due to the delta variant. Generally speaking, lieutenant governors don’t often receive such national press unless their governor is in trouble.
Does Caldwell stand a chance?
Yes. He is an experienced pol, he is equally ambitious, he knows how to raise money (albeit something not demonstrated thus far this campaign), he has strong name recognition and he believes that his leadership on Honolulu’s response to Covid was effective. I’ve even heard some folks longing wistfully for Caldwell and the color-coded reopening tier system that Mayor Rick Blangiardi moved away from once in office.
Unlike Green, Caldwell has actually managed a large government, and he has had his share of real accomplishments in office. His main challenge is rail, the project that he has long championed but that is out of his control, and other baggage that always accrues to jobs like mayor — like the ill-advised playground at Ala Moana Beach Park and the construction of a ball field at Waimanalo Bay Beach Park.
The only other candidate to emerge (so far) in the gubernatorial contest is Vicky Cayetano, a businesswoman and the wife of former Gov. Ben Cayetano.
She’s hired experienced PR maven Lynne Waters to handle her media, which included issuing a press release last week in which Cayetano urged Ige to require vaccinations for customers of restaurants, bars, spas, gyms, performing arts and outdoor sporting events.
Waters says Cayetano is expected to formally announce her campaign later this month “or thereabouts.”
One big upshot for Cayetano is she is the only woman of color in a race featuring two white guys running to lead the most ethnically diverse state in the nation. She’s never run for office — neither had Blangiardi — and it was interesting that her organizational report filed with the state Campaign Spending Commission initially did not indicate her party affiliation, as the same reports for Green and Caldwell did. (They are both Democrats. Duh.)
Cayetano’s report was amended Wednesday, however, to say that she is in fact a Democrat. (Of note: Cayetano’s campaign chair is Loretta Sheehan, formerly of the Honolulu Police Commission.)
Wild card: Will Colleen Hanabusa, who is again leading the rail authority, run for governor again? I’d say it depends on what happens with the other three candidates and whether they stay in the race.
And what about the Republicans? Andria Tupola, the GOP nominee three years ago, is now on the Honolulu City Council and is not running for gov. I have no idea who in the party possibly could.
Lieutenant Governor
Here’s a little news: Jill Tokuda, the former state senator, is expected to run to replace Green, to whom she lost in 2018.
“I’ve been talking with a lot of supporters and individuals in my campaign, and it’s really become clear to me that I can’t sit on the sidelines any more — that there is a lot of good that I can do for this state,” she told me Wednesday. “I am working on filing my organizational papers by Labor Day so we can be off and running.”
Tokuda will join former City Councilmen Ikaika Anderson and Ron Menor, who have already filed their organizational paperwork. On Wednesday, Menor told me he is “still exploring a run” while Anderson said, “Yes, I am looking at running.”
Another former City Council member, Kym Pine, says she has not made a decision about 2022 but that she, too, has been approached by supporters and that the LG office is a possibility.
Keith Amemiya, the runner up in the race for Honolulu mayor last year, said “no comment” about the race. But I am hearing his name a lot.
Same goes for state Sen. Donovan Dela Cruz, House Speaker Scott Saiki (who is already reported to be weighing a run — thanks for reading Civil Beat!) and Sherry Menor-McNamara, the president and CEO of the Chamber of Commerce Hawaii.
The downside for Saiki and Dela Cruz is that they would have to give up their powerful perches in the Legislature — Saiki because House seats are up every two years and Dela Cruz because the decennial reapportionment will mean every state Senate seat is up next year.
Wild card: Tulsi Gabbard. Really.
Republicans: Beats me.
