Hawaiʻi is on the cusp of a multibillion-dollar, decades-long commitment to liquid natural gas, spurred by the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office’s study stating that LNG could offer a cleaner-burning fuel for electricity generation, along with a recent partnership agreement for infrastructure financing signed between the governor and JERA, a Japanese energy company and one of the world’s largest LNG exporters.

Gov. Josh Green has emphasized the urgency to ensure energy security. High energy bills are creating hardships for families and businesses. Power plants need replacement. Our 2045 100% renewable energy mandate is literally around the corner. We must act expeditiously and wisely.

Ideas showcases stories, opinion and analysis about Hawaiʻi, from the state’s sharpest thinkers, to stretch our collective thinking about a problem or an issue. Email news@civilbeat.org to submit an idea or an essay.

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A key question before committing billions of taxpayer dollars to new fossil-fuel infrastructure is: Have we fully explored local energy solutions before locking in decades of imported gas?

An Unexplored Option

Some argue that Oʻahu can reach 100% renewable energy through aggressive deployment of solar, wind and battery storage alone. HSEO Chief Mark Glick warns that Oʻahu does not have sufficient suitable land to achieve this. A study by Sustainable Energy Hawaii and GTK reinforced this concern.

It is important to consider that clean baseload power is an essential complement to solar, wind and storage, and critical to energy resilience and self-sufficiency. So, why not geothermal as that clean baseload?

Heat Beneath Our Feet

There is evidence that viable geothermal resources exist across the state. University of Hawaiʻi’s Play Fairway Project confirmed that all the major Hawaiian Islands, including Oʻahu, may contain the subsurface heat needed to produce geothermal energy.

Research from the 1970s through 2020 identified promising thermal potential at the Lualualei Valley and Mōkapu Peninsula, locations of key military installations: Naval Magazine Lualualei and Marine Corps Base at Mōkapu.

Alignment of federal and state interests development takes time and capital; however, once operational, geothermal would provide an almost inexhaustible source of clean baseload power with no imported fuel and no supply chain risk.

Could a collaboration with the federal government help?

• In 2023, the Department of Defense launched enhanced geothermal systems pilots at four U.S. installations.
• In 2024, the Navy signed a 10-year agreement providing UH up to $10 million annually for climate-resilience support at Pearl Harbor-Hickam and Marine Corps Base Hawaiʻi.
• The federal government requires the Department of Defense to achieve energy resilience for critical missions by 2030.

The Risks Of LNG

LNG requires offshore infrastructure to offload, store and regasify, as well as pipelines and new power plants. This infrastructure is estimated to cost over $2 billion and won’t deliver power until the mid-2030s.

Once operational, it would have roughly 15 years of useful life before the 2045 deadline. Financed over the standard 30-year period, ratepayers would be paying for stranded infrastructure long after it’s retired. Importantly, the numbers work out only with high throughput, meaning LNG use would need to expand beyond electricity generation for it to make financial sense — HSEO’s analysis found that at low volume, “there are no economic savings for consumers.”

Supply-chain disruption is a big risk, as we learned in 2008 when oil hit $147 per barrel, and electricity prices spiked. They spiked again in 2022 with the Ukraine war. Hawaiʻi already imports billions of dollars in petroleum annually. While LNG may be cheaper than oil today, it would perpetuate our dependence and vulnerability.

We Need A Local Energy Portfolio

This is not about geothermal versus solar, wind, batteries and biofuels.

Rooftop solar covers more than a third of the state’s single-family homes. Some grids are already over 50% renewable; Oʻahu is approaching 40%. Furthermore, local biofuel producers could supply over 75 million gallons annually by the 2030s. We need all local energy solutions, including those that reduce our energy use.

Solar and wind power, however, are intermittent. Batteries store hours of energy, not days. Biofuel supply cannot meet the needed baseload demand. Our island grids are uniquely vulnerable to multi-day weather events with no external grid to rely on. Therefore, dispatchable baseload power is needed as the foundation of a 100% renewable energy system.

The Big Island’s PGV demonstrates the potential of geothermal. It annually displaces over 500,000 barrels of oil at its rated capacity and requires a small land footprint. No fuel imports. No price shocks. No supply chain dependence. Importantly, when more power is needed, you add new wells.

A Call To Action

Before wagering billions on additional decades of fossil fuel dependence via LNG, let’s determine whether geothermal can deliver needed baseload power. HSEO’s $33 million exploration request was deferred in the 2025 Session. The Legislature is now considering House Bill 1981, which would fund geothermal exploration statewide.

If drilling confirms geothermal as a viable resource, Hawaiʻi gains a path to genuine energy independence. If drilling fails to find geothermal as a sustainable source, $33 million will have been spent for a definitive answer, rather than gambling $2 billion on an assumption.

Therefore, we need to:

• Ask the governor and legislators this session to 1) make research funding a precondition for any LNG commitment; and 2) fully fund geothermal exploration.
• Urge the Public Utilities Commission to require a full lifecycle cost analysis, including the stranded-asset scenario, before approving LNG. We deserve a full comparison.
• Call on residents to contact their legislators and demand that local energy options be explored before committing us to additional decades of energy import dependence.

One answer to our energy self-sufficiency may be waiting beneath us. Let’s create the political will to find out!