Big raises equals no raises: Say what you will about Colleen Hanabusa but there is no question she is an astute politician. So The Blog’s money is on her when she says, as she did Monday, that there’s little chance legislators are going to approve mammoth raises for themselves and then go out and ask voters to reelect them.

The public is still hot under its collective collar about those 64% raises the Honolulu Salary Commission handed to Honolulu City Council members in 2023. Other city officials got sizable increases, too.

The Legislature is going to be forced to approve or reject whatever the state commission gives it in an all-or-nothing deal. And no way will lawmakers open its members up to the public spanking that will surely come, Hanabusa predicted Monday. That means if the commission continues to try to force double-digit pay hikes through, no one will be getting a raise for at least another six years.

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“The Legislature’s going to have to justify this report or they’re going to vote it down, and I think that the rate that we’re going, they’ll probably vote it down,” she said.

The state salary commission has met 11 times since November to try to come to agreement on pay raises for state officials — the governor, lieutenant governor, cabinet members, judges and, yes, lawmakers. Monday’s meeting was the latest in which commission members stopped short of voting on a proposal which has for weeks hovered somewhere around a 60% increase for the governor, 40% for legislators and about 20% for many of the other 200 or so state officials whose paychecks are up for debate. Smaller raises would automatically follow over the next six years.

Under the recent plan, lawmakers’ pay would go from about $74,000 a year to more than $120,000 over the next six years. The governor’s would go from about $180,000 now to more than $300,000 a year.

But the stumper for legislators is their raises wouldn’t kick in until 2026 — specifically after the next election. Everyone else’s raises start July 1. Can you say political suicide?

The salary commission is scheduled to meet again Feb. 20. Fortunately for The Blog and everyone else following this slow-motion train wreck, the commission does have to make a decision sometime. So maybe the 12th time is the charm?

Wanted: more talk story: State senators killed a measure Tuesday that would have transferred management of Mauna ‘Ala from the state Department of Land and Natural Resources to the Office of Hawaiian Affairs.

OHA first expressed interest in taking over management of the mausoleum last year, prompted in part by DLNR’s controversial pick of a new curator at the site known for being the last resting place for many of Hawaiʻi’s monarchs.

Lawmakers said they would step in to resolve the agencies’ differences if they couldn’t come to an agreement on how to move forward by the New Year.

Senate Bill 4 would have initiated the transfer to OHA, but Sen. Tim Richards, chair of the Senate Hawaiian Affairs Committee, recommended deferring the measure to give OHA and DLNR more time to talk and gather input from various stakeholder groups.

“We don’t have enough talk story yet,” Richards said. “We don’t have a firm direction that we need to go.”

“Am I convinced DLNR is the right housing for this? Not entirely,” Richards continued. “But I’m also not convinced moving to OHA is the right thing yet. We need to have a better understanding with all the people giving input.”

Dark matters: Democrats nationwide are freaking out over how Donald Trump and Elon Musk have turned Washington, America and the world upside down in barely three weeks in office.

That goes for Hawaiʻi Dems as well. (ICYMI: Lee Cataluna: Hawaiʻi Is Sticking Its Neck Out In Resisting Trump.) On Monday, U.S. Rep. Ed Case held an unusual “urgent” talk story live on Facebook and his congressional website.

His main message: We are living in dangerous times, only the judges can save us and citizens need to know what is going on and what they can do about it.

Case said he shares some Republican goals such as shrinking the size of government and reining in budget deficits. But it’s also clear that Trump is trying to punish his enemies and remove anyone who opposes him or his administration, in Congress and in the courts, the congressman said, and without the guardrails put in place by the nation’s founders, abuse of power is inevitable.

“In my darkest thoughts I believe there is a purposeful attempt actually to sow confusion and get too many of our citizens to just say, ‘This ain’t worth participating in anymore,’ and to essentially opt out,” he said. “I certainly think that is the goal of some members of this administration.”

Watch the video:

Gruesome ending for ambitious tax plan: A union proposal to drastically change the Hawaiʻi tax structure was killed in the House, then gutted in the Senate.

The idea was to shift a larger share of the total tax burden onto the millions of visitors to Hawaiʻi each year.

It gave and it took away, proposing to raise the general excise tax from 4% to 6% on most goods and services but exempting food and non-prescription drug purchases.

While the excise tax is considered regressive for taking a bigger percentage bite out of low-income budgets, the legislation also called for eliminating the state income tax for people who pull in less than $100,000 a year.

Anyway, you can forget about most of it.

House Economic Development and Technology Chair Greggor Ilagan killed House Bill 959 on Friday without bothering to take a vote, declaring it would “need work.”

On Monday the Senate Committees on Health and Human Services and Labor and Technology removed huge chunks of a companion measure, Senate Bill 1043.

All that remains is the section to eliminate the excise tax on food and non-prescription medicines. That major surgical procedure came at the suggestion of Health and Human Services Chair Joy San Buenaventura.

Now it goes to the Senate Ways and Means Committee.

Both bills were backed by longtime union leader George Paris and the Hawaiʻi Building & Construction Trades Council, which is made up of 18 construction trade unions. The formidable Hawaiʻi State Teachers Association also supported the measures.

The return of Gene Ward: As The Blog recently blogged, Gene Ward, the veteran Hawaiʻi House Republican from Hawaiʻi Kai, has missed the entire session this year. On Tuesday, Ward sent out an email to let everyone know what’s up.

“At one time or another, many of you may have experienced a version of sciatic nerve pain that runs down from the lower back from the spinal cord through the hip and down the thigh,” he wrote. “While I have never had it before, mine is a now quite a doozy.”

Ward said it has been painful to walk even a short distance.

“My version of this has hindered my recovery from a lingering case of anemia the past weeks and has curtailed my strength and mobility — and something I now need you to know.”

Ward says he expects to return to the Capitol soon, as soon as his doctors give him the green light.

“I will send an update in the near future but I wanted you to know that I am keeping abreast of community issues and legislation while recovering. (Seeing that marijuana and gambling is back on the ’25 Session Agenda is enough to get any Conservative back into the fray!!)”

Moving on: Big news in the business community on Tuesday — Micah Kāne is leaving the Hawaiʻi Community Foundation to take the CEO position at Parker Ranch.

Kāne, a former Kamehameha Schools trustee and current board member of Hawaiian Electric Industries, has been steering the giant charitable foundation for nearly 10 years. HCF says under his leadership the foundation’s endowment grew from $500 million to more than $1.2 billion in assets. Most recently, HCF was a key player in the response to the Maui wildfires through its Maui Strong effort.

Kāne will begin the new gig at Parker Ranch (that’s a huge ag operation on the Big Island for those who don’t know) on Sept. 1, according to a press release from Parker Ranch.

HCF is embarking on the search for a new leader in the meantime.