In the wake of the 2023 Maui wildfires, our island’s housing crisis has reached a critical point. In response, county officials propose phasing out approximately 7,000 short-term rentals by 2026, with the goal of converting these units into long-term housing for locals.

The urgency of this issue is undeniable, and the intent behind the proposal is understandable. However, as currently structured, the policy presents serious challenges that may unintentionally create new problems while falling short of its goal.

It risks harming our economy without meaningfully addressing the barriers that keep locals from accessing truly affordable and suitable housing.

Closer Look At Financial Impact

The proposed STR phase-out could deliver a serious blow to Maui’s economy.

According to the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization, the proposed policy could lead to the loss of nearly 1,900 local jobs, a $900 million reduction in annual visitor spending, and $60 million less in property tax revenue — funds that support critical public services and potential housing projects.

In other words, we risk weakening our economic foundation without making significant strides toward increasing accessible and affordable housing for local families.

The Reality Behind The Units

Many of these units were never built to support long-term residential use. They’re typically small, one-bedroom or studio condos, with limited storage, outdoor space, and parking. Homeowners association
rules in many buildings also restrict family living with pet bans.

Additionally, high carrying costs — including mortgage payments, HOA dues, maintenance, and taxes — can easily top $6,000, far beyond what most local families can afford in rent. For a household earning Maui’s median income, affordable rent caps out around $2,500 per month.

According to a 2025 survey conducted by the Realtors Association of Maui, only 8% of apartment-zoned STR owners said they would convert their units to long-term rentals if the bill passed. Most said they would either sell or keep their units for personal use, citing financial strain, HOA restrictions, and the loss of family flexibility.

In short, these properties are unlikely to reenter the market in a way that substantially benefits local residents.

A review of the original covenants, conditions, and restrictions and zoning documents for many of these properties shows that short-term or transient use was clearly contemplated when these projects were established. There were no references to affordable or workforce housing requirements, reinforcing the fact that these units were not designed to serve as long-term housing.

While the intent behind Bill 9 may be to prioritize housing, reinterpreting the original use of these units doesn’t guarantee the outcome the community is hoping for.

A Fragile Tourism Economy

The proposed phase-out also threatens to disrupt Maui’s visitor economy. Reducing the number of permitted STRs may not decrease tourism itself, but it could centralize visitor spending into fewer hands.

That shift would disproportionately impact small businesses and local service providers that depend on the distributed economic benefits of STR guests. By consolidating tourism dollars into fewer hands, the policy risks diminishing the community’s share of the visitor economy without guaranteeing that more resources will stay in local hands.

Building Lasting, Local Solutions

Maui needs a balanced and thoughtful approach; one that addresses housing affordability while safeguarding economic stability. Rather than eliminating permitted STRs outright, the county should consider strategic actions, such as:

• strengthening enforcement against illegal STRs;
• allocating STR tax revenue specifically for affordable housing development; and
• accelerating the development of 201H projects, expanding accessory dwelling units, and investing in essential infrastructure.

This isn’t about defending one sector over another. It’s about finding solutions that genuinely serve Maui’s residents while preserving the economic vitality that sustains our island community.

Moving forward, let’s prioritize clear, practical, and community-focused strategies that address the housing crisis without compromising our future. Let’s work together to build a path that truly benefits all who call Maui home.