Memorial Day weekend is traditionally the unofficial start of campaign season. In Hawaiʻi, the last day to file for office this year is June 2 but many candidates, especially in the most high-profile races, have already been campaigning for weeks.

Civil Beat Politics Editor Chad Blair recently spent an hour or so talking story about the already topsy-turvy election season with three people who closely follow Hawaiʻi’s candidates and campaigns. Beth Fukumoto, a Civil Beat columnist, is a former Republican House member who left the party nearly a decade ago because she didn’t agree with Donald Trump’s politics. She teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Colin Moore is a political science professor at the University of Hawaiʻi and arguably the most quoted political expert in Hawaiʻi, appearing frequently on Hawaii News Now and writing the occasional essay for Civil Beat. Neal Milner is a former political science professor at the University of Hawaiʻi where he taught for nearly 40 years. He also is one of Civil Beat’s regular columnists. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

So the first race I wanted to talk about is one of the more competitive primaries we’ve had in a while. And that’s the race for Congressional District 1. Ed Case, the longtime incumbent Democrat, has two primary challengers, state Rep. Della Au Belatti, who is retiring from the Legislature after 20 years, and state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, who does not have to retire because his Senate seat is not up. What do you think about this race?

Neal Milner: It’s often very easy to talk about Hawaiʻi politics when people want to know who’s going to win, because in this state, as in other places but certainly here, the incumbent has a big advantage. And that’s really where you start. And if you add to that, the fact that you have two other candidates competing against one another, and you have the fact that Case is doing pretty well in fundraising. My general position is, unless something unusual happens, Case is definitely in the driver’s seat.

Beth Fukumoto: I’ve worked with Jarrett and Della and I feel like neither one of them would have jumped in if they didn’t think they had a chance. This is not just a random try. I do think that they believe that they can win. And I think that they’re hard workers. Della has been a lot more involved in the resistance, the Indivisible stuff and that kind of thing. She’s been much more present, I think. And in a time where I would love to see Hawaiʻi stand up for a certain set of values, she’s been outspoken. I think what this is going to come down to is: Is that what people want? Or do they want what Ed has always offered — and said he believes people wants — which is a centrist, a steady hand that is willing to compromise on things that maybe the party will get angry about?

Did you run for this seat, Beth? You did, and against Ed in a very crowded primary.

Fukumoto: Yeah, so this is my concern for them. Is that Della plus Jarrett is probably not good. Like to Neal’s point, probably not going to work out well.

And Colin, to that idea that somehow Jarrett and Della split the more liberal progressive vote, although that may be not the best label for either of them. But Ed Case is generally known as a Blue Dog, as a moderate, so if either Della or Jarrett weren’t in this race, would this be more competitive?

Colin Moore: Absolutely. And Della and Jarrett know this as well. These are three veteran politicians. They can all do math. They understand that it’s likely they’re going to split the anti-Ed Case vote. Case has been around for forever. He has loyalists. He’s the weakest, I think, of the members of the delegation, but there’s plenty of strong Ed Case supporters and voters. They’re both to the left of Case, and so I just don’t see a scenario where one of them ends up beating him. If it was just one person in the race, then I’d say this is going to be a lot tighter. I believe that they’re running to win, but like I said, I also think they understand that it’s unlikely.

For Keohokalole, I think to some degree he can’t lose. He raises money, he increases his name recognition. He stays in the Senate. Maybe this is a tough race for Case. He decides ‘I’m going to serve for two more years, and I’m out.’ Then all of a sudden, Jarrett is right there having strong name recognition.

For Rep. Belatti, I think it’s a little more complicated. But she is retiring from the House. In some ways, again, she probably can’t lose, really, if she wants to do some something else in state politics, or just raise her profile somewhat. I think she’s been really strong in this race about advocating for some issues that she’s always really been behind — good government, she’s talked a lot about, and this is where she and Sen. Keohokalole sort of got into it recently, about whether or not he’s accepting money from PACs. I think Della has been pushing that pretty hard, in part, to differentiate herself. But I think that both of the challengers here understand that a victory over Ed Case is a long shot.

Milner: Can I add a couple of other things that I thought of as I was listening? One of which is how under-polled the state is. That is, if we were having this discussion in the majority of other states we would know how good the numbers would be and how tentative. You would have a talking point here that you could refer to in regard to how they’re splitting the vote.

The other side that’s always been of interest to me is how this kind of progressive wing suddenly appears in the media around election time. And then that progressive wing gets hammered in the election. My point is is that it has never had enough numbers or enough clout. So in a way, I think that part of the problem for both of those two candidates is that their organization, that historical support for a candidate to the left, is not something that people think about very much here.

Fukumoto: Especially in CD1.

What’s unique about CD1? That it’s less left, less liberal? Is that what you’re saying?

Fukumoto: Yeah, I think it’s slightly more conservative. If you look at the areas of CD1, you have Mililani, which I represented, but you also have Waipahu, you have the whole Leeward Coast there, from Ewa Beach down to Hawaiʻi Kai, and I think Republicans have done well there, and it’s only growing. So I don’t see that likely tipping to be more progressive lately.

The Second Congressional District, which is essentially rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, Jill Tokuda is looking to have a very easy primary. But she may well have an interesting general election against Brenton Awa, the Republican state senator who, just like Jarrett Keohokalole, doesn’t have to resign because he’s not up for reelection this year. Give me your take on that contest.

Fukumoto: Republicans don’t often get this free chance. Awa has always been so well liked in the community, people love him. So I’d be surprised if he doesn’t just go for the free shot at it to just test the waters, see if maybe if that can elevate him past his Senate district, see if there’s support elsewhere, and to get out a message. And that would be a tough race for Jill, just because I know that they would work hard.

Why do people like Brenton Awa? I agree with you. What’s his game, his charm?

Milner: Well, I know why I like him and I knew him from KITV days (where he was a former reporter and anchor). The reason I like him is he’s a real piece of work. The guy does everything in an unorthodox manner. And I remember him calling me when he first declared (for state Senate) and he asked what I thought his chances were. And I was kind of politely saying not too much. And then, of course, he called me afterwards to mention what a fool I am.

The North Shore is a very diverse district in lots of ways. He campaigns in different ways. He doesn’t take money. He’s managed to stay out of the traditional limits of the Republican Party. I don’t know how that appeal works more broadly. And the main thing I don’t know is what difference the money makes, which is not as much of an issue when he ran before (in a Senate district) but in a bigger situation where he’s less known on the neighbor islands.

I know that when he ran for Senate — twice now — he literally walked door to door. And shook hands. And that’s a very rural district. This is the entire state, with the exception of urban Honolulu. How do you get that word out without money? Colin, how does he get the word out?

Moore: He will need money to run a statewide race, and I think he knows that. But he does have probably the most robust social media presence of any of the legislators. Remember, he’s a former TV anchor. He’s great at communication. He’s the king of earned media, from planting coconut trees to what he just said about the guy who tried to throw a rock at the monk seal. I mean, he is great at getting himself in the news, and I think a lot of people do find his approach refreshing.

I remember — and I don’t know why this sticks with me — but it is something I always admired about Sen. Awa when he was criticized for not voting in favor of Kimchi Day in the Legislature, and he sort of said, ‘Give me a break. This is a waste of everyone’s time, and we all know it.’ And you know, I think that message resonates with a certain number of people. He does sort of have a Trumpian genius for saying things that seem very, very genuine and somewhat unexpected.

But to run a statewide race he’s going to need money, and I think he’s been raising some. I haven’t looked at the numbers but I imagine in the general he will have plenty of help from national Republicans who will love nothing more than to give Jill Tokuda a bad time, even if she’s almost certainly going to win this race. This is a very Democratic district. She’s a popular incumbent. We’re not talking about a Tulsi Gabbard here. People like Jill Tokuda, she’s popular, she polls well. But I think that if the issue for Brenton Awa is money, I think the national party will probably throw him some money because for them, it’s relatively cheap. And it’s nice to give liberal Democrats a tough time in their own district, and even a competitive race in Blue Hawaiʻi would be a great, a great talking point for the RNC.

Milner: The question I had was about coloration. To me, it’s intriguing given how much this is a Trump national Republican thing, how much of a coloration they’ll try to put on Brenton that, in fact, could harm him. I mean, do they frame him as a conservative Republican or a Trumpian Republican in that way? He certainly has some interesting impulses but I don’t think that’s him, and I don’t think that would work very well here.

Beth, let me ask you just one follow on that. I mean, you famously had some run-ins, very well publicized ones, with the Republican Party. You left the Republican Party largely over your disagreements with President Trump. How strong of an influence does he remain here, so much so that he could help or hurt a down-ballot candidate?

Fukumoto: I think he’s remained a huge influence. Four years ago, I would have said he would just hurt, but I think there are definitely districts where he would help now, and that is not the case before. And I think there is probably some in CD2 where that’s true as well. And I think Brenton’s ability to capture that Trump outrage and make it super local is what makes people like him so much. And I would imagine that’s what the party would try to play off of.

Moore: I totally agree. There’s a populist energy that Brenton has that is really rare here. And a lot of his policies, even if they’re criticized and unconstitutional, like that bit about trying to prevent people from outside buying land, that plays really well, and he’s been really talented at that.

The thing about Trump that I would mention before we move on, though, is that Trump isn’t on the ballot this year. And so two years ago, I would have said, well, his friend will get a big boost because the Trump supporters are going to come out to vote for the president. I think the Republicans will struggle a little bit because because they don’t have Trump on the ballot to get them to vote.

If you are a state House Republican, would you mention Trump in your campaign? Or would you downplay it, not bring him up at all, and just focus on local issues?

Milner: That’s the Republican dilemma that goes back at least to Linda Lingle who was always trying to be very careful to emphasize one set of policies and credentials when she was on the mainland and another set here.

Fukumoto: I had to make that calculation many times, and it was always distance yourself as much as possible from the national. I disagreed with Trump many times when he was the nominee. But I would also say, looking back, what people were always pushing me to do in the party was to tie more to the national and to be more like Trump. And in retrospect, that has grown the party, as this group of Republicans have done. That’s not something I could have done. There’s something to be said for the tactic of tying yourself to Trump now, even in Hawaiʻi, maybe not this cycle, because he’s not running and because of the war. But otherwise I don’t think it’s as easy of a call as it was eight years ago, 10 years ago.

Moore: And it’s always interesting to me how they’ve all made different choices. (Rep.) Diamond Diamond Garcia is pretty clearly MAGA and talks about Trump a lot. Others almost never talk about Trump. I rarely have heard Rep. (Lauren) Matsumoto talk about Trump. Maybe I just missed it. But she almost never does. And so they’ve made their own strategic calculations here.

On the governor’s race. Josh Green, barring the unexpected, does not have a brand name credible opponent in the primary. David Ige came out of nowhere to defeat an incumbent, Neil Abercrombie. He, too, was challenged four years later by brand name Democrats, I think it was Colleen Hanabusa. And then, of course, when Neil Abercrombie ran, he was up against Mufi Hannemann and some others in the party. And you can go back further. There is a habit of lieutenant governors challenging their own governors. We could just go back and back. Even Linda Lingle had a decent Democratic opponent. But Gov. Green is completely unopposed. Are you surprised by that, that nobody is throwing their hat in the race, given the challenges that the state has right now?

Milner: He’s got a crapload of money. He has high approval ratings. And, of course, with our Carpenters Union money, that loads the dice even more in the direction of whoever they support, which, of course, here it is Josh. So it’s hard to imagine (a challenge).

Does he deserve what essentially is a cake walk? Or does he have some things that he should answer for? Of course, big things have happened — the Lahaina fires and the challenges over kauhale, the tax cut battle, the recent floodings. Should he be guaranteed another term?

Milner: No. To say this is a democracy sounds like a cliche. This is an exaggerated version of what’s happening in too many places on the mainland. So good or bad, it would be nice to have some kind of competition to bring things out, just as it would be nice to have one, maybe even two, Republican candidates running for governor who have the money and the moxie to be able to carry it off.

And, by the way, who is Gary Cordery? In all likelihood, he’ll probably be the Republican nominee for governor, going against Green. But who is he? I know a little bit about him, but do you folks know anything about him?

Moore: It’s just that he is a local businessman, very involved in the evangelical community is my understanding. His moment to start in politics was he was radicalized around Covid and some opposition to the Covid restrictions. So I think he represents that kind of somewhat populist fringe. I’d say he’s even more in that direction, certainly than Brenton Awa, or any of the currently elected Republicans.

Interesting because you’re looking at perhaps the most visible figure during Covid, Gov. Green, a medical doctor, against one of the most visible opponents of the Covid restrictions. He was there at the Board of Education meetings as well opposing kids being left at home and the mask rules.

Moore: The only other thing I’d say about the governor’s race is that we talked about how no one wants to run because Green is popular and has a lot of money. But it is remarkable that he’s managed to maintain that popularity. Hawaiʻi voters have been harsh on our governors recently. Ige was down in the 30s for his approval ratings. Everyone thought he was going to lose to Colleen Hanabusa in the beginning, and Abercrombie did lose. And you know, Lingle, as we’ve talked about, of course she won, but didn’t have the level of approval that Green has.

So I was so looking forward to a Sylvia Luke-Derek Kawakami race until the floor fell out from under her. So maybe some thoughts about what happened? Having a sitting lieutenant governor who very much wanted to seek office again for a second term and the governorship four years down the road. How would you sort of tie this up, the Sylvia Luke saga?

Moore: Part of it is just amazing how the black hole of the Cullen-English scandal has ended up sucking so many people, and even years later. I fully thought that Sylvia Luke was going to be the next governor of Hawaiʻi after Josh Green. I would have bet $100 on that. And so it has really shaken up how people imagine the next eight years of politics here.

Kawakami was looking for a race to run in for a long time. I think he saw himself as LG eventually, or governor, and there was this question of what he would do in the time between being mayor of Kauai and having an opportunity to run for LG. And there was talk about him running for Ron Kouchi’s seat. But losing Sylvia Luke, it is also a little bit tragic. I mean, this isn’t to excuse what the lieutenant governor may or may not have done, but I think for a lot of people, she did represent this sense of very clean, technocratic governance. That was a big part of her appeal. I think it’s partly why this scandal hit her so hard, because it was just so off brand. She was known for being the person who knew where all the money was, was organized, responsible, didn’t engage in the more sleazy or sleazy-adjacent activities that are so well known among a lot of the Democrats. But I really do see this as a tragedy. For Sylvia Luke, of course. But just for the state generally, because she did seem to to to represent a sense of clean, responsible government.

Does she have a political future?

Moore: No.

Fukumoto: I think that tragic is the exact right word. I was very hopeful that she was going to be our first female Asian Democratic governor. Very hopeful. I thought we were going to finally break through that ceiling. And so to see this happen is really sad. And because, as Colin said, this isn’t on brand for Sylvia. I served with her and she’s got a lot of integrity. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the end, what we’re going to find out, but I do think it’s too bad. She was a very good public servant when she was in the Legislature. And I think Kawakami also is going to do a good job. He’s done a good job as the Kauaʻi mayor. But for Sylvia, it’s a sad ending due to her career.

Milner: I think it’s more than sad. I think it’s more than tragic, it’s outrageous. I understand why she had to resign, and I understand people’s reaction to it, but the way this whole thing is being handled. You started this discussion, Chad, by saying we all know what happened to her. We don’t know what happened to her. We know nothing. We know nothing more than what Civil Beat managed to weasel out about somebody saying somebody passed a certain amount of money. And that had the ball rolling. So in terms of how the state and the feds have handled this whole process, she’s not the only victim for sure.

Moore: Yeah, you were really critical of the AG’s handling of that.

Milner: I think somewhere along the line the feds said we have this investigation going, don’t bother us. That doesn’t stop the state from stepping in. There’s no law that says they couldn’t have done some kind of investigation. The whole investigation process to me was flawed, and the state has significant responsibility for that.

All right. There’s 51 seats in the House. They’re all up this year, half of the Senate seats, so 12 or 13 are up. Any thoughts on competitive races to watch in the Legislature?

Fukumoto: I’m curious about what happens with Elle Cochran’s (Maui) seat, the party switch (from a Democrat to a Republican.) So I think that’s the big one that that I’m looking at. And then some of the tighter races races in 2024 where the Trump boost did really help Republicans pick up.

Moore: I’m kind of interested in the Kurt Fevella-Bob McDermott primary challenge. Fevella is well known. McDermott is already extremely well known in that community, and they represent just very different visions of what the party can be. And Fevella is a very local populist, but not someone who talks national Republican talking points, certainly. But his reputation, and I think it’s a true one, is that he cares deeply about the community. And my understanding is McDermott is running in part because he doesn’t feel like Fevella has been faithful to some of the core Republican principles.

And the other one I’m interested in is Jackson Sayama running against Les Ihara. Les Ihara is the longest-serving person in the Legislature right now. I think he was first elected in 1982. And Jackson is one of the youngest people in the Legislature, maybe the second or third youngest member, who represents that Kaimuki area in the House. And it’s interesting because Ihara hasn’t drawn a serious challenge in a long time. He has a very unique idea of representation, he’s more of a legislator, philosopher. I don’t think he’s had to run a tough race in years.

Milner: The general question I have is what are the chances of Republicans picking up more than two or three seats?

Colin is shaking his head no. Beth, what do you think?

Fukumoto: Not this cycle, but maybe next time.

There are two really fascinating mayoral contests — on Maui, where Richard Bissen has said he’s not pau yet, he wants another four years. But Yuki Lei Sugimura, the county councilwoman, and a few others, are challenging him. It’s a crowded field, and on Maui the top two finishers go on to the general. Bissen, of course, was mayor during the Lahaina fires. How do you see that racing shaping up? How vulnerable is Richard Bissen in a reelection challenge?

Fukumoto: I think it’s going to depend on how much money goes into it. I think you could probably hang some things on him, the fire response and things that people are unhappy about, the housing crisis. But you would need money to do that.

Moore: I think this is probably the most interesting race this cycle. We don’t have a governor’s race. We don’t have an LG’s race any longer. I think it’s going to be real close. Bissen was criticized initially for the wildfire recovery. I think he’s recovered to a certain extent. One of the reasons that Yuki Lei Sugimura says she’s running is Bill 9 and fears about Maui’s tourism industry. And Bissen is certainly not a progressive. I believe he used to be a Republican, but he supported Bill 9 (converting short-term rentals into long-term housing.).

I don’t think it’s as clean a divide as the council races. That’s also an interesting set of races, because there’s so many challengers. And Maui politics, more than any other county, can be divided pretty cleanly into the progressive faction and the centrist faction. On Maui, they always seem to really embrace their ideological identities a little more clearly. But I think that the Bissen and Sugimura race is harder to characterize that way.

So I think it’s really going to be a referendum on how people feel Bissen handled the wildfire recovery, of course, and then also Bill 9. It’s a very emotional race, because it’s about this tragedy, and it’s also about people’s economic future. And one side feels like their ability to have housing on Maui is being robbed from them. The other side might feel like their livelihood is being robbed from them.

With the money issue, I think that there’s going to be some mainland money in this race. I haven’t looked at where the money is coming from, but I know that the losers, the people who are potentially losing their ability to rent their condos under Bill 9 or the visitors who own houses on Maui and are quite upset about this, even if they’re not directly affected. And those are very wealthy people, and I think that Sugimura may be able to draw some funding from from them for sure.

Milner: This is a more indirect one. Back in the day, and I think it still holds, one of the things that affects whether people vote and whether they participate in politics is the extent to which they have political affect, the extent to which they think they have something to say about controlling the relationship between what they need and their belief that you can get it from politics. The data on the degree to which there is depression and anxiety on Maui that lingers (after the fires) would suggest to me that that may be a factor. What is the displacement, the disruption, the angst, and especially the feeling of loss of control over your world? It’s a wild card to me.

The Kauaʻi Mayor race has a similar dynamic. You have a former mayor, Bernard Carvalho, running again. He is currently on the council. You have Mel Rapozo, also on the council, the chair, also a former candidate for mayor. But there’s some other folks getting that race as well. Felicia Cowden, also on the council. And then, of course, you have the council races. Any thoughts on the Kauaʻi race to succeed Derek Kawakami?

Moore: My sense of this race is that Felicia Cowden has a good shot at this because Bernard Carvalho and Mel Rapozo are hard to even tell apart. I mean, they’ve been long, long time serving people in Kauaʻi politics. They even kind of look alike. They really draw from the same voters. And my sense is that Felicia Cowden is a little to their left and may be able to differentiate herself. Maybe people are interested in an alternative. I think it’s a more interesting race, because she’s entered.

Anybody want to make a bet what time the results will be released on Aug. 8? It was just after midnight last time, five hours after the polls closed. Lines at Honolulu Hale, Kapolei Hale, also on some of the neighbor islands. Nothing’s changed. There’s not going to be more voter centers, that fell through.

Moore: I think this is ridiculous. Look, some people want to vote in person. A lot of people clearly want to vote the day of the election. What Donald Trump is saying nationally is only going to intensify those feelings. Not to mention the stuff that the elections commission has been doing. So we’re going to be waiting again.

I do think that the attitude generally is really quite paternalistic from some of the county election officers, the sense that vote by mail works, people should do this, we don’t want to encourage this behavior, and so we don’t want to open more voter service centers. I understand bureaucratically why they want to do that, but people don’t. A lot of people want to vote in person the day of the election. Fine. That’s great. They want to vote. Let’s make that as easy as possible. It’s a little more money. It’s not a lot of money. That’s my populist rant for the night.