The local GOP patted itself on the back last week, saying it has fielded candidates for nearly every state House and Senate contest.

Party leaders are realistic: They know there is virtually no chance to take control of either chamber of the Legislature. The Tea Party rage that is upending mainland races — and perhaps the U.S. Congress — is little evident here.

At best, the Hawaii Republican Party may chip away at the 23-2 Senate majority and 45-6 House majority enjoyed by the Democratic Party of Hawaii.

But history suggests it will be a difficult, possibly futile exercise. Similar GOP efforts to present voters with a deep electoral bench in recent years has actually resulted in the loss of seats — even with the leadership of a Republican governor.

Civil Beat sizes up the 2010 legislative races.

To analyze the 2010 races for the state Legislature, the recent past is instructive. For Republicans, it’s depressing. To wit:

2004

Six years ago, in the first election year in four decades in which Hawaii’s sitting governor was a Republican — and when George Bush was re-elected president and Hawaii appeared for a time to be leaning toward voting for “W” — the local GOP fielded 56 candidates in the general election.

Forty-eight of those Republicans lost, including incumbent Reps. David Pendleton, Bertha Kawakami Leong, Mark Jernigan and Brian Blundell. The losers also included former Kauai Mayor Maryanne Kusaka, who lost a state Senate race to Gary Hooser, and MidWeek columnist and military veteran Jerry Coffee, who lost to Rep. Blake Oshiro.

Balance of power: 20-5 in the Senate, 41-10 in the House.

2006

Four years ago, when the U.S. House and Senate were taken back by Democrats, the local GOP ran 52 candidates in the general election. Forty-four of them lost, including long-time incumbent Rep. Mark Moses.

Balance of power: 20-5 in the Senate (until Mike Gabbard switched from Republican to Democrat in 2007, making it 21-4), and 43-8 in the House (until Karen Awana switched from Republican to Democrat in 2008, making it 44-7).

2008

Two years ago, when Barack Obama was elected president and control of Congress was retained by Democrats, the GOP ran 33 candidates for the State Legislature in the general election.

Twenty-nine of those Republicans lost, including three incumbents (among them Rep. Colleen Meyer and Sen. Gordon Trimble). Of the four Republicans who were elected or re-elected in the general, two — Reps. Gene Ward and Barbara Marumoto — were veteran party members with long careers in public office. A fifth Republican, Rep. Cynthia Thielen, ran unopposed in the primary.

Balance of power: 23-2 in the Senate, 45-6 in the House.

2010

Which brings us to the present competition.

All 51 House seats are up for re-election, as are 15 of the 25 Senate seats; there are two more Senate races than usual because Hooser and Bobby Bunda (who both had two years remaining of their four-year terms) resigned last week to run in the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor.

In the Sept. 18 primary election, Republicans have fielded 75 candidates, while Democrats have 110. Once the results come in, both parties will compete directly in 60 races in the Nov. 2 general election.

Republicans are guaranteed to re-elect Reps. Ward, Thielen and Marumoto (Districts 17, 50 and 19, respectively), who face no opponents at all this fall. No Democrat incumbent is similarly unopposed, although Rep. Bob Herkes (District 5) seems poised to defeat his nonpartisan and Libertarian opponents in the general.

Republicans’ Best Chances

In the Senate, Republican Sam Slom (District 8) seems likely to be re-elected over his unknown Democratic opponent. Four Senate races are open, but two favor Democrat House representatives with name recognition and experience: Michael Magaoay, who wants Bunda’s former District 22 seat; and Glenn Wakai, who is running for Norman Sakamoto’s District 15 seat (Sakamoto, also a Democrat, is running for lieutenant governor). Veteran politician Ron Kouchi, running as a Democrat, seems to have the edge to fill Hooser’s former District 7 seat.

Late Thursday, Honolulu Councilman Donovan Dela Cruz withdrew his candidacy for mayor to challenge Magaoay for Bunda’s old District 22 seat.

The best chance for Republicans to win another Senate seat may come in the race to replace Fred Hemmings, who is retiring. Two Republicans and three Democrats are competing in the District 25 primary, and none seems to have a lock on the race.

The 10 other Senate races all feature comfortably ensconced Democrat incumbents. If Republicans can’t win one of the four open races, Democrats will probably end up with a 24-1 member majority in the 2011 session.

In the House races that feature both parties, 42 have Democratic incumbents, many of them seasoned politicians who will be difficult to unseat. It’s not impossible — Republicans who can walk door to door, post campaign signs in their district and pay for mailers and even advertising could cause an upset. But it will be a tough slog.

As in the Senate races, Republicans’ best opportunities may be in five open races: the District 18 seat held by Democrat Lyla Berg (who is running for lieutenant governor), a district that includes conservative neighborhoods; the District 32 seat held by Republican Lynn Finnegan, who is also running for LG; and the District 46 seat being vacated by Magaoay, who has had to fend off a feisty Republican candidate in elections past.

It’s tough to predict this early the outcome of House races, but at best Republicans could pick up a seat or three, and at worst lose them. Democrats will rule the chamber for two more years — at least.

Tough Democratic Races

In the primary, four Democrats are running for Magaoay’s House seat, three Democrats are running for Berg’s House seat, three Democrats are running for Finnegan’s House seat, three Democrats are running for Hemmings’ Senate seat, four are running for Karamatsu’s House District 41 seat, four Democrats are running for Wakai’s House District 31 seat, three Democrats are challenging House District 44 incumbent Awana, two Democrats are challenging Senate District 20 incumbent Will Espero, three Democrats are challenging House District 8 incumbent Joe Souki, and two Democrats are challenging House District 11 incumbent Joe Betram.

Put another way, there will be new faces in next year’s Legislature, but they will probably be Democrats.

Among the more intriguing Democratic contests pit Christian conservative Gary Okino against progressive Rep. Oshiro (District 33), newcomer Kimberly Case against freshman Rep. Isaac Choy (District 24), and pro-gay rights Mike Golojuch Sr. against pro-family values Sen. Gabbard (District 19).

Nothing is certain, of course — except that, as Tip O’Neill famously observed, all politics is local.