One of the strongest measures of a politician’s electoral strength is how much campaign cash they have and who gave it to them.

In that regard, Gov. Neil Abercrombie would appear a formidable candidate.

He has raised more than $2 million for re-election, including $290,000 in the six months ending Dec. 31. After expenses, the Abercrombie campaign reported $1.4 million in cash on hand.

The Abercrombie for Governor campaign highlighted the fundraising haul in a Jan. 31 press release.

“Governor Abercrombie and his campaign team are gratified by the widespread support,” said campaign manager Bill Kaneko.

The release added, “Governor Abercrombie was elected in November 2010 and Kaneko said the fundraising numbers put the governor in a strong position as he makes a bid for re-election next year.”

An analysis of campaign finance records shows that Abercrombie’s donors’ list reflects much of Hawaii’s political status quo: lawyers, lobbyists, business executives, politicians, PACs and political appointees.

We’ll do some name-dropping later in this article.

But what has yet to materialize — and what may be a warning flag for his re-election — are large campaign contributions from top labor groups.

Primary Challenge?

Hawaii governors, with rare exception, easily win re-election to a second term. That’s the case even when they are challenged in a party primary, as has happened several times over the years.

Given that Hawaii is as blue a state as there is in the nation, Abercrombie, a Democrat, would seem a lock for re-election.

But there has been talk for months now that Abercrombie, who turns 76 next year, may not run again, or that he may face a competitive primary challenge from someone like U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, a former state Senate president.

In that context, the press release on fundraising numbers can be seen as an attempt to ward off the competition. Should Hanabusa or another Democrat want to seriously challenge him, fundraising efforts will have to begin this year.

The governor told Civil Beat in December that his health is fine. He downplayed talk of a primary challenge and said that he expected his party to rally around his re-election.

To be sure, Abercrombie excels when it comes to raising money. For example, he spent $4.6 million in his 2010 election, out-raising and out-spending Republican opponent Duke Aiona, who was the sitting lieutenant governor.

Abercrombie bested Aiona by double digits, and it’s unclear whether the Hawaii GOP will be able to field a credible challenger next year. It will certainly be hard to match Linda Lingle, who raised a record $5.8 million in her 2006 re-election, where she crushed Democrat Randy Iwase.

In his 2010 bid, Abercrombie was helped in no small part by organized labor, and from early on in the contest.

The Plumbers & Pipefitters PAC gave him $6,000 during the first half of 2009, well before Abercrombie’s campaign formally launched. Same goes for the Hawaii Laborers PAC ($4,000) and the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly ($2,000). So too did unions representing longshoremen, electrical workers, sheet metal workers, seafarers, elevator constructors and hotel and food workers.

The labor largesse continued in the second half of 2009, with electrical workers and the Hawaii Laborers PAC kicking in more contributions along with the Glaziers, Architectural Metal and Glassworker union ($6,000). Union contributions continued during the first six months of 2010, too, during which Abercrombie resigned from Congress and began campaigning in earnest.

Though Mufi Hannemann, who resigned as Honolulu mayor in late July 2010 to run for governor, racked up a lot of the major union endorsements before losing to Abercrombie in the Democratic primary — also by double digits — major labor support ultimately ended up backing Abercrombie in the general election.

It included money from the HGEA Political Contribution Account ($6,000), the United Public Workers ($2,000), the Hawaii State Teachers Association ($6,000) and UNITE HERE Local 5 PAC ($5,300). They represent four of the five largest unions in the state.

Of note: Dozens of individuals identifying themselves as teachers, including some working for the Department of Education, contributed to Abercrombie as well.

Labor Pains

Over the past two years, though, only three people identifying themselves as public school teachers gave money to Abercrombie. So far, no contributions have come from the HGEA, the HSTA and UNITE Here Local 5.

By contrast, UPW — the state’s third-largest union — has already given Abercrombie the maximum $6,000 in the current election cycle.

It was the UPW that rejected the wage and benefit cuts HGEA agreed to two years ago and instead went to arbitration, where it received a more favorable deal. As for the HSTA, the governor imposed similar cuts to the HGEA’s, and the bad relations between the teachers and the governor continue. Unions like the HGEA were angered by the governor’s tactics with the teachers.

Asked about the apparent drop off in labor support — and the near lack of support from environmental groups, who have their own beef with Abercrombie (read: Public Land Development Corporation) — Kaneko cautioned that it is still early in the campaign.

“The current governor’s election cycle is between 2010 to 2014,” he said in a statement to Civil Beat. “Labor organizations will generally donate funds only after a formal endorsement is made by the union. Same goes for environmental groups which have political action committees. We anticipate endorsements and financial support to come in during 2014, during the year of the primary and general elections.”

It’s true that top unions like HGEA, the HSTA and Local 5 will make their endorsements much closer to election time. But it’s worth noting that at least some labor groups have already made up their mind and contributed to the governor’s re-election.

They include UHPA, Local Union 1186 IBEW, Hawaii Carpenters Market Recovery Program and Plumbers & Pipefitters, which each gave the maximum $6,000. Of course, those groups are not in high-profile disputes with the state.

All told, labor money for Abercrombie this time around totals about $40,000 — a small portion of the $2 million the governor has raised. Could other labor groups be holding out to support a possible primary challenger like Hanabusa?

The HGEA and the HSTA — like UHPA and the UPW, they are public-sector unions — are pushing for restoration of the cuts they took two years ago and seeking pay increases. If they get what they want, Abercrombie may well fall back into their good graces.

Meanwhile, the governor is trying to address what may be the state’s greatest crisis, and one the unions are following closely: the growing unfunded liability of state worker pensions and benefits.

The $6,000 Club

The reluctance of labor to fully commit to Abercrombie in 2014 makes early contributions from other groups stand out.

Individuals who have already given the governor the maximum $6,000 include retired banker (and board member excelsior) Don Horner, developer Stanford Carr, MW Group executive Michael Wood, government consultant Charles Toguchi, HMSA executive Tim Johns, Labor Director Dwight Takamine, attorney Bert Sakuda, Navatek CFO Martin Kao, RevolSun executive Mark Duda, Royal Hawaiian Movers executive Richard DeWitt, Oceanit executives Jan Sullivan and Patrick Sullivan and consumer advocate Jeff Ono.

There’s so many individuals in the $6,000 club that another paragraph is necessary: developer Duncan MacNaughton, Ground Transport executive Louis Gomes, James Campbell Co. executive Richard Dahl, real estate investor Bert Kobayashi, Waikiki Business Plaza executive Leighton Mau, Queen’s Health executive Arthur Ushijima, erstwhile energy executive Roald Marth, a whole bunch of people who work for Mitsunaga & Associates, and Hawaiian Electric executives Richard Rosenblum, Constance Lau and Robbie Alm.

Organizations in the $6,000 club include Outrigger Enterprises, Alexander & Baldwin, Castle & Cooke, Hawaiian Electric, Young Brothers, Island Insurance, DTRIC Insurance, HMSA and NAN Inc.

As is common everywhere, powerful people give money to elected officials even if they aren’t yet running for office. They know who’s buttering the bread. But a lot of the folks who have already contributed to Abercrombie are heavy-hitters, the kind of backers the governor will need to win a second term. It’s a measure of his electability.

Abercrombie’s latest campaign finance records do not reflect possible fall out — or gain — from his decision to appoint Brian Schatz over Hanabusa to the U.S. Senate. That came in late December, near the end of the reporting period. It was apparently Dan Inouye’s last wish that Abercrombie select Hanabusa.

Now that he has distanced himself from support for the PLDC, the governor may also be able to bring environmental groups like the Sierra Club into his fold.

With all his wealthy friends, the governor could probably win without all of labor’s backing. But it would be a odd capstone for a man who began his political career as a labor organizer during his University of Hawaii days.