This year’s hurricane season begins in June and ends in November, and some Hawaii residents are filled with fear and trepidation.

Last August, three Category 4 hurricanes appeared in the Pacific Ocean at the same time – an unprecedented event. One hurricane named Jimena had sustained winds of up to 140 miles per hour. The number of named tropical storm systems in the Central Pacific in 2015 — 15 — beat the last record of 11 set in 1994. When 2015 ended with no hurricane making landfall on a Hawaiian island, residents heaved a big sigh of relief.

Will Hawaii’s luck continue in 2016? Based on a decade of hurricane experience and learnings, what specific Hawaii population groups should be targeted by government for natural disaster preparedness and assistance?

Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena roar across the Pacific Ocean in this unprecedented satellite image from NOAA last summer.
Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena roar across the Pacific Ocean in this unprecedented satellite image from NOAA last summer. NOAA

Ranked in the top five most deadly hurricanes in U.S. history, Hurricane Katrina inflicted total property damage in 2005 of more than $108 billion, and 1,245 people perished. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency and academic researchers’ studies on the devastating hurricane (and other natural disasters) pointed to the disproportionate impact on “vulnerable, at-risk” populations, specifically the elderly and low-income.

In a review of Katrina deaths in the scientific journal Risk Assessment, the authors studied 1,100 victims in post-Katrina New Orleans. The report’s age analysis showed that nearly 85 percent of the deaths reported were among those older than 51, 60 percent were older than 65 and almost half were older than 75. Yet pre-Katrina demographics showed that in the two parishes reporting the most deaths, only 25 percent of residents were older than 50, 12 percent were older than 65 and only 6 percent were older than 75.

At one New Orleans nursing home, after the Lower 9th Ward levee breached and water poured into their living quarters, 31 elderly residents who could not swim drowned. Others perished from building collapse, heart attack, dehydration, heat stroke or a lack of medicines.

A review of Katrina deaths showed that nearly 85 percent were among those older than 51. Yet pre-Katrina demographics showed that in parishes reporting the most deaths, only 25 percent of residents were older than 50.

Why didn’t the residents evacuate New Orleans? Before Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans officials recognized that more than 300,000 residents — in a pre-Katrina urban population of 445,000 — would not be able to evacuate without government-provided transportation. Unusual for a sprawling mainland city, one out of three New Orleans households did not own a car. At Katrina’s landing an elderly New Orleans resident most likely stayed at home or at a nursing home.

Katrina’s terrible impact on the elderly — like that of other natural disasters, like tsunamis and flooding — has implications for Hawaii, with a growing elderly population, living alone or with their children or in hospices.

The 2014 U.S. Census revealed that Hawaii’s senior population grew four times faster than the total state population. People 65 or older accounted for approximately 16 percent of the total Hawaii population in 2014, with a total of 228,154 residents. Over the next 10 years, this group may increase to 20 percent or one in four Hawaii residents, and government agencies must focus on this population to become resilient during natural disasters.

So a key post-Katrina lesson is that a particularly “vulnerable, at-risk” group is the elderly. Many elderly who wanted to evacuate pre-Katrina were unable to do so and no evacuation program in New Orleans existed that identified elderly residents.

Hawaii neighborhoods with high elderly concentrations may be the condominium clusters along Honolulu’s Ala Wai canal or the Kalihi-Palama neighborhood; or Maui’s Wailuku; or Hawaii Island’s Hilo. Accurate residential mapping must be done to implement evacuation planning with adequate transportation to prevent disproportionate death tolls.

Being elderly often means low-income, so even if kupuna tried to ride out a hurricane, many on fixed incomes lack the funds to upgrade their homes to withstand a Category 4 hurricane’s rain and winds. (Hawaii TV news often show roof reinforcements and other renovations, but that is beyond the financial ability of many elderly or low-income residents.)

The elderly may be physically challenged to do simple home repairs or are immobile due to health or disabilities; 20 percent of the U.S. population age 65 and older have some level of disability. Also, low-income residents who live in rental units are dependent on landlords or public housing agencies for structural “hardening,” but rarely do such renovations become a high-priority budget item.

In many states, strong building codes not only are enacted but also enforced, along with funding assistance programs. For example, retrofitting older buildings, again setting priorities based on past natural disasters, can help to make them more disaster resistant in low-income neighborhoods like Kalihi-Palama, composed of mostly older homes that require extensive “hardening” compared to Mililani or Hawaii Kai.

Moreover, many low-income citizens cannot prepare adequately for a major hurricane. According to a Harvard study in one mainland city, more than one-third of low-income families surveyed did not have a more than three-day supply of food in the household. By way of comparison, middle-class families had 8 percent.

Prior to Category 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992, lower-income women in Florida told researchers they heard the storm warnings, but were unable to evacuate or stockpile food because they lacked funds for supplies or transportation.

Family income definitely is a factor in ensuring a higher probability of natural disaster survival success, and government agencies must consider this factor in hurricane or disaster planning. Therefore, there should be a focus on food and medicine stockpiles in low-income neighborhoods, and efficient distribution systems in place – like through established, faith-based organizations with existing food programs, for instance.

Ultimately — based on Hurricane Katrina’s tragic lessons — elderly and low-income housing “hurricane-proofing,” evacuation and preparedness programs must be ranked at the top of priority lists in preparation for the coming June-November hurricane season.

In the second part of this Community Voice, scheduled for publication next week, Tsuchiyama will explore the special storm-related risks for non-English speakers, children, animals and tourists — the latter a particularly significant category in the resort paradise of Hawaii.

Community Voices aims to encourage broad discussion on many topics of community interest. It’s kind of a cross between Letters to the Editor and op-eds. This is your space to talk about important issues or interesting people who are making a difference in our world. Column lengths should be no more than 800 words and we need a current photo of the author and a bio. We welcome video commentary and other multimedia formats. Send to news@civilbeat.org. The opinions and information expressed in Community Voices are solely those of the authors and not Civil Beat.

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About the Author

  • Ray Tsuchiyama
    Ray Tsuchiyama is a realtor and management consultant. He had roles with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Google, and Castle & Cooke. He was raised in Kalihi-Palama (W.R. Farrington) and spent 25 years in Japan. He was in AI R & D at Digital Equipment Corporation, and he is currently on the advisory board of the UH Information and Computer Science Department. Tsuchiyama is a former Maui County Commissioner, and he has lectured on leadership at Stanford and Waseda University. His essays have been published in Forbes, the New York Times, the Japan Times and The Hawaiian Journal of History. Born in northern Japan, he is Ainu via his maternal side.