Though a solid national consensus has emerged that Hillary Clinton came away from Monday night’s debate with a big win, exactly how big that win will be won’t be known with any numerical accuracy for several more days, when the first significant post-debate polls come in.
But there are a few reasons to believe the bump Clinton might receive from Monday night could be more significant than the winner enjoys from the usual presidential debate.
Here are three:

• The margin of victory. An instant poll by CNN/ORC of debate watchers called the debate for Clinton, 62 percent to 27 percent — a 35-point spread and one of the largest in modern presidential debate history.
It was the most cited poll in Tuesday coverage, but not the only one. Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling scored it 51 percent to 40 percent, Clinton. Smaller measures, such as a focus group conducted by noted GOP pollster Frank Luntz, also called it decisively for Clinton.
Who won tonite’s debate?
In my focus group, 6 people said Trump and 16 said Clinton. #DebateNightYou can say here: https://t.co/rFZYklEsdr
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 27, 2016
The CNN/ORC poll’s sample of 521 is relatively small, so we should use caution in interpreting too much from it, even with a relatively typical 4.5 percent margin of error. But its essential outcome does jibe with other early measures.
Even if you assume a margin half what CNN/ORC found — 17.5 points — that’s still an emphatic win, which is amplified by …
• The historic size of the audience. CNN estimates the debate’s audience at 80.9 million — a new broadcast television record for political debates. Neilsen called it even higher: 84 million.
While that’s lower than the 100 million projected by some analysts pre-debate, it doesn’t take into account sizable audiences who watched via PBS or C-SPAN, according to CNN Senior Media Correspondent Brian Stelter, nor does it factor in the millions of viewers who watched online streams on social media.
Two million viewers, for instance, watched the debate through the Washington Post Facebook page alone, according to Post Social Media Editor Gene Park. It’s probably safe to say that in excess of 100 million did, in fact, watch the debate live.
Having a strongly winning performance in front of 50 million viewers is one thing; in front of 100 million, quite another. It unavoidably creates a heightened ability to change voter perceptions on a significant scale.
• Trump extended the damage. Unlike candidates who have taken a drubbing in previous debates, Trump hasn’t gone to ground while his staff and surrogates try to shape the post-debate dialogue with media and other influentials.
When Obama was beaten soundly by Mitt Romney in their first debate in 2012, he mostly left commenting to Campaign Manager Jim Messina and quietly focused on preparations for the next debate.
Not Trump. In the hours after he and Clinton left the stage last night, he acted like a sore loser, first continuing to press some of his least successful arguments to reporters in Spin Alley, blathering about the Obama birtherism controversy, doubling down on demeaning comments he made about a former Miss Universe pageant winner and more. Then he blew off a GOP victory party where he was expected as guest of honor, flying back to Manhattan.
Worse, after what one assumes was a poor night’s sleep, he complained that moderator Lester Holt of NBC was too easy on Clinton, claimed his lectern mic was defective and implied he‘d been given a bad mic on purpose (“I don’t want to believe in conspiracy theories, of course, but it was much lower than hers,” he said on Fox News).
Morning-after coverage accentuated those points.
“Most debate watchers came away … with doubts about Trump’s ability to handle the presidency,” reported CNN. “Overall, 55 percent say they didn’t think Trump would be able to handle the job of president, 43 percent said they thought he would. … About two-thirds of debate viewers, 67 percent, said Clinton’s critiques of Trump were fair, while just 51 percent said the same of Trump.”
CNN went on to report that 44 percent of women respondents felt Trump’s attacks on Clinton were unfair. That may cause Trump further trouble among urban/suburban women, where he already faces major (and some say insurmountable) challenges.
Little Time Left To Change The Narrative
None of this is to say that the consensus around the Clinton win and related dynamics will necessarily translate into a very big or lasting difference in this race.
Half of respondents to the CNN/ORC poll said the debate would make no difference in their vote. But among those who felt otherwise, 34 percent said they were more inclined to support Clinton. Only 18 percent said the same of Trump.
Still, in a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters taken Sept. 22-25 and released Tuesday, only 4 percent of respondents said they were undecided. With only weeks to go until Election Day, opinions are solidifying and chances are diminishing that many can be convinced to support a different candidate.
Clinton and Trump are scheduled to debate twice more (Oct. 9 and Oct. 16), so there’s time and opportunity for Trump to change the narrative. But that assumes he’s able to rein in the more outlandish parts of his personal demeanor — something he showed no ability to do Monday.
Unfortunately for him, that’s his best hope. Clinton hopelessly outmatches him on policy knowledge, familiarity with how government works and actual foreign policy and legislative experience. Those are all important in these debates, and they aren’t areas where he can make up much ground in days or weeks.
Only 40 days remain until the general election. While the race going into Monday night was close, by Tuesday afternoon, the path forward seemed more promising for Clinton.
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