Hundreds of Maui residents have moved out of Hawaiʻi since the August 2023 wildfires, according to estimates released Tuesday by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization. 

But three times the number of residents relocated from Lahaina to other parts of Maui as a result of fires, researchers found. 

The overall population of Maui has dropped by at least 1,000 residents since the disaster after factoring in increased out-migration and lower-than-expected levels of in-migration.

That population loss on the Valley Isle will result in a drop in the state’s annual income of around $53 million in collections from the general excise tax, economic activity and income tax, the report found.  

“These preliminary estimates likely underestimate the magnitude of the effect, but nonetheless help to shed light on the evolving impact of the fires,” researchers Dylan Moore and Baybars Karacaovali wrote. 

Pinning down the impact of the wildfires on Maui’s population has been difficult due to the lack of reliable data, including lag times with U.S. Census Bureau estimates. 

The UHERO research used the addresses of state tax filings to track the migration patterns of 5,100 residents who were likely displaced by the fires based on their locations before Aug. 7, 2023.

Some 90% of these people were forced to leave their homes, the report said, and state tax returns filed since the wildfire were used to determine their current location.

Their other findings include:

• 1,420 residents relocated within the Lahaina zip code (for example, West Maui)
• 1,058 residents moved elsewhere on Maui
• 369 residents left Maui altogether, including 242 who moved out of state and 127 who relocated to other counties in Hawai‘i

The researchers from UHERO and the Hawaiʻi Department of Taxation said that this report has limitations because around 600 displaced households have not filed returns since the fire. And some of the displaced households who moved away from Maui “likely would have done so regardless of the fires,” they said.

Civil Beat’s coverage of Maui County is supported in part by a grant from the Nuestro Futuro Foundation.