NOAA Forecast: ‘Above Average’ Rainfall For Hawaii Through April

As such, existing drought is expected to be eliminated by the end of the rainy season.
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NOAA on Thursday announced that Hawaii can expect more rain than usual from October through April 2020.

That’s because El Niño neutral conditions are expected to continue.

“In the last 30 years, eight out of the top 10 rainiest wet seasons have had ENSO-neutral conditions,” said NOAA in a press release. “Consensus of climate models favor above average rainfall through the wet season.”

Drivers head mauka on Oahu Avenue near the E. Manoa intersection after torrential downpours hit Oahu.
Drivers head mauka on Oahu Avenue in Manoa after torrential downpours hit Oahu, February 2018. Cory Lum/Civil Beat

ENSO means El Niño-Southern Oscillation, “a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean,” according to the National Weather Service.

NOAA says that the “possibility of cutoff low pressure systems” could produce “intense rainfall, especially when combined with expected above average sea surface temperatures.”

The extra rain means that existing drought conditions are expected to be eliminated by the end of the “wet season,” which is what NOAA calls the rainy season.

Many locations statewide had above average rainfall from May through September, the agency said — the seventh-wettest dry season the last 30 years.

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