Progressives could reclaim control of the Maui County Council this fall as two members of the moderate-conservative majority are not seeking another term and at least two other races are expected to be competitive.

With Council Chair Alice Lee stepping down and council member Yuki Lei Sugimura running for mayor, voters could redefine the power dynamic at the polls Nov. 3. The current five-member, conservative-leaning faction also includes Kauanoe Batangan, who was appointed in December to fill the late Tasha Kama’s seat; Nohelani U‘u-Hodgins; and Tom Cook, who is facing a rematch against Kelly King. All nine seats are up for election.

“That group is in some jeopardy,” said Colin Moore, a political analyst at the University of Hawai‘i Mānoa. “There are some real opportunities for the progressives to pick up some seats.”

The council races, much like the county’s closely watched mayoral race, could be seen as a referendum on the leadership and policy decisions of local lawmakers in the aftermath of the catastrophic 2023 wildfires, Moore said. Now, voters have an opportunity to decide who they want to steer the county as it continues to focus on its long-term disaster recovery, a longstanding housing crisis, challenges posed by climate change and other significant issues. 

“It’s just about whether going forward, voters want to back the more centrist and probably development-friendly faction, or if they want more of a progressive, ʻāina-centered faction to run the council,” Moore said. “It could go either way. It’s always been one side or the other controlling the council with just a bare majority, and these are competitive races.”

Sugimura, who has held the Upcountry seat for more than a decade, announced her bid to unseat Mayor Richard Bissen earlier this year. Lee, who has represented Central Maui for nine two-year terms, including five as chair — confirmed this week that she did not intend to seek reelection. Several candidates have emerged as contenders to fill those empty seats.

Cook, who represents South Maui, and Batangan, who represents Kahului, face notable challengers for their seats, and a candidate has also pulled papers to run against U‘u-Hodgins for the North Shore residency seat.

No one had filed to run yet against any of the council’s four more progressive members — Tamara Paltin of West Maui, Keani Rawlins-Fernandez of Molokaʻi, Gabe Johnson of Lānaʻi or Shane Sinenci of East Maui — as of Monday. One person had pulled papers to run against Sinenci. The filing deadline is June 2. 

While the mayor is responsible for running the local government on a daily basis, the council acts as the legislative body, controlling finances, setting tax rates and establishing the laws and land-use policies that guide future development. 

The sheer number of tight contests this year raises the stakes for every race, Moore said, and it means the political tilt of the council is more uncertain than usual. 

“Whoever has that majority will dictate a lot of central policies moving forward,” he said, pointing to hot-button issues such as water rights, property taxes and Bissen’s plan to create more long-term housing for residents by phasing out thousands of short-term vacation rentals.

Candidates must live in the geographic area they are seeking to represent but they are elected at-large. That means residents across the county, regardless of where they live, can vote in every race.

Choices For Voters

Neighbor island elections — particularly those on Maui — often are more competitive than those on Oʻahu, according to Moore. However, there are an unusually high number of tight council races on the Valley Isle, he said, even by Maui standards. 

“The central policy issues are animating all of these races, and Maui, unlike pretty much everywhere else in the state, offers some really clear choices,” Moore said. “Maui politics is more ideological, and the choices voters have are clearer in terms of which policies the candidates back, compared to Kaua‘i, for example, or the Big Island, or even O‘ahu, where it always is a little more muddled.”

Maui County Council candidates have largely articulated clear visions of the future, he said, and they frequently can be categorized relatively easily as leaning more progressive or more centrist.

One example of that pattern has been playing out in South Maui, where two-term council member Cook is gearing up for a fierce rematch against King, the more progressive former council member who represented the community on the council for six years until she left to run for mayor in 2022. Cook barely fended off King last election, winning by just 97 votes.

In Kahului, Kauanoe Batangan, who was appointed in December to fill the vacancy created by the death of council member Tasha Kama, faces his first-ever council race. Because he has only served on the council for a few months, he has not had the same opportunity to build the reputation and campaign infrastructure as other council members, Moore said. He is running against Carol Lee Kamekona, who was also considered to succeed Kama and who was the runner-up to Kama in the 2024 election. Jason Ababan has also pulled candidacy papers.

The most crowded races — and perhaps the most uncertain — are those for the Upcountry and Wailuku-area residency seats, which are open after Sugimura and Lee, the council’s two most senior members, announced they would not be seeking reelection for those seats. 

Kalo farmer and long-time community advocate Bobby Pahia has filed to run for the Upcountry seat and has emerged as a leading progressive candidate. Jon Yokouchi and Derrick Cabiles have also pulled papers. 

In Central Maui, Marvin Moniz, the longtime airports manager for the state Department of Transportation who has Lee’s endorsement, and James “Nahele” Forrest, an attorney who leans progressive, have filed to run for the Wailuku district seat. Forrest lost to Lee in the 2024 election by 9 percentage points. Alan Lloyd and Justin Hughey, both progressive community advocates, also have pulled candidacy papers. 

Philosophical Differences

Lee told Civil Beat that she was content with her decision not to run for reelection, and she looked forward to shifting her focus to leading the nonprofit she started — New Leaf — to help reintegrate formerly incarcerated people back into the community.

“I’m not a spring chicken. I’m going to be 78 years old in 60 days, but I’m still spry enough to climb that last mountain,” she said. “That mountain means dedicating a lot of time and effort into the nonprofit, making sure that it’s stable, it’s strong, and that we can provide the kind of help these ex-prisoners need.”

Lee served her first five terms on the council from 1989 to 1998 before leaving to lead the county’s Department of Housing and Human Concerns. She returned to the council in 2019, she said, after county staff urged her to run again.

Lee didn’t know exactly what to expect on Election Day, she said, but she worried that political tides could turn.

“My concern is, philosophically, the council will be moving left. I hope it doesn’t, but I think it will be moving a little to the left too much,” she said.

She said she supported Cook, Batangan and U’u-Hodgins in their reelection bids, and she hoped to see a council where members make decisions based on “logic and facts,” rather than emotions.

The top two candidates in each of the non-partisan council races will advance from the Aug. 8 primary election to the Nov. 3 general.