If you’re a progressive in Hawaiʻi, please consider this your trigger warning. 

Voters in Hawaiʻi seem to really like Ed Case. 

The Democratic congressman trounced state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole in this month’s primary election by 20 percentage points. The result came as a shock to many — particularly in Keohokalole’s camp — given the anti-incumbent sentiment nationally and narratives that Case, a moderate, was a vulnerable Democrat in a year when more progressive candidates were winning. 

But what might be even more surprising is just how well Case, 73, performs in general elections – November contests that have higher voter turnout and ultimately dictate who controls Washington.

Since being elected to Hawaiʻi’s 1st Congressional District in 2018, Case has consistently outperformed his federal colleagues on the November ballot. That includes winning a higher percentage than Democratic U.S. Sens. Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono in his district and statewide. He’s also performed better than Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, each of whom drubbed Donald Trump in the islands. 

In fact, the only time Case didn’t win the largest share of the federal vote in a general election was 2018 when then-U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard won 74% in the 2nd Congressional District to Case’s 70% in his CD1. He also had a higher percentage of the vote than Hirono, who was seeking reelection to a Senate seat she first won in 2012 after beating Case in a highly contested primary. 

“No one believes me until they look at the numbers,” said John Hart, a professor of communication at Hawaiʻi Pacific University. “Every time Ed runs you hear he’s vulnerable, that the powers that be in the party don’t care for him, but if you look at the election results the numbers have always been there.”

The margins aren’t huge, typically only a few percentage points, but the results are consistent.

Primaries are another story. Those contests are where Case’s political opponents usually focus their attention. It’s also where progressives splinter off from those who still find Case’s brand of representation more palatable.

Still, in recent years he’s performed better than his Democratic House colleagues in CD2. The only exception was this year when he faced off against Keohokalole, which was the first time he faced a serious challenger. 

Winning ‘Crossover’ Votes

Hart attributes Case’s popularity to shifts in voter sentiment and his willingness to buck his own party. Democrats still dominate the political playing field in the islands, but Republicans have been making headway. Beginning in 2016, the share of voters casting ballots for Trump grew from 29% to 37%, and GOP candidates have been winning more seats in the Legislature. 

“A lot of those voters are more comfortable with Ed, given that he’s a moderate as opposed to a progressive,” Hart said. “So I think he pulls a lot of a Republican crossover who, under other circumstances, might be willing to vote the party line.”

Case offered a similar analysis the night he defeated Keohokalole. He said national pundits and outside observers misjudged Hawaiʻi’s electorate, which he describes as “mainstream, moderate Democratic,” which matches his own profile. 

“Hawaiʻi voters are just as upset as anybody else about where things are right now,” Case said. “But I think they took that basic theme and applied it to the candidates before them and to the needs of Hawaiʻi, and simply came to a different conclusion. … I just don’t think there was a direct translation.”

Colin Moore, a political scientist at the University of Hawaiʻi, cautioned against inferring too much from Case’s recent general election victories. Case’s Republican opponents have included perennial also-rans who most voters have probably never heard of, Moore said, whereas Schatz and Hirono squared off against retired state Rep. Bob McDermott, someone who had at least some name recognition even if he didn’t mount vigorous campaigns. 

Still, Case’s performances can’t be ignored, Moore said, because he tends to reflect the reality of the state electorate, which tends to be more center-left than ideologically progressive. 

“Hawaiʻi is a democratic state; it’s not a progressive state,” Moore said. “Case’s centrism benefits him in the general because there are moderates and independents and some Republicans who are just fine voting for him, especially when he’s running against someone no one has ever heard of. So what makes him weak and vulnerable in the primary is what gives him strength in the general.”

In addition, Case has positioned himself well in Washington over the past eight years, using his seniority to win a seat on the House Appropriations Committee, where he holds sway over billions of dollars in federal money coming back to the islands. He tries to stay in touch with his constituents via newsletters and emails, some of which include links to lengthy documents detailing votes he’s taken, letters he’s written and bills he’s introduced or co-sponsored. 

Unlike Tokuda, who is squaring off against GOP state Sen. Brenton Awa, Case doesn’t face a viable Republican opponent in the November election. 

That means he’s poised to continue his streak.