The commander of U.S. forces in Asia and the Pacific, Admiral Samuel Locklear, has cautioned that the U.S. and China have begun an intense competition to see which navy rules beneath the waves in the vast Pacific and Indian Oceans and their adjacent seas.
In an interview at Pacific Command’s headquarters overlooking Pearl Harbor, the admiral also suggested that the new leader of China, President Xi Jinping, seems to have moved swiftly to exert control over the People’s Liberation Army, which comprises all of China’s military forces.
On submarines, Locklear estimated that China planned to acquire a total of 80 submarines, some powered by diesel-electric engines, others by nuclear reactors, to expand their current fleet of 55 boats. He cited this expansion as an example of Beijing’s lack of transparency.
“Why do they need them, what are they for?”, the admiral asked rhetorically. By contrast, the U.S. Pacific Fleet has 30 attack, 2 guided missile, and 8 ballistic missile submarines. Under the Obama Administration’s plan to “rebalance” U.S. forces in this region, that number is scheduled to grow gradually.
In testimony before a Congressional committee last month, Locklear said “both Russia and China are expected to soon field new ballistic missile submarines capable of ranging the U.S. homeland,” meaning they would be able to target U.S. cities and military bases.
The Pentagon’s annual report on Chinese military power, released last week, said China’s new submarines would be armed with ballistic missiles able to shoot 4400 miles. Beijing’s most recent white paper on defense, released last month, said only that its submarine fleet was being modernized.
Further, Locklear noted that smaller nations in this region are expanding their submarine forces “as a potential counter to stronger neighbors.” He said “Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the ROK [Republic of Korea] …have recently launched – or soon will launch – new, modern submarines.”
Press dispatches from Southeast Asia and India have reported Chinese submarines operating increasingly in the South China Sea and out into the Indian Ocean. Until now, China’s aerial defenses have been given greater attention outside of China.
In the interview, Locklear asserted, as have U.S. political and military leaders for years, that the U.S. is not seeking to “contain” China. ”We need to contain competition between the two powers,” he said, “to develop a stable security environment in the Asia-Pacific that is capable of adjusting or flexing without breaking apart during a crisis.”
On the issue of Communist Party control over the PLA, Locklear said: ” “It appears to me that President Xi has moved quickly to solidify control of the PLA under his leadership.” In addition to being president and general secretary of the Communist Party, Xi is chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC).
The Communist Party supposedly controls the PLA through the CMC. But the CMC has only two civilian members, President Xi and Premier Li Keqiang. The other ten are generals or admirals in a committee where consensus is often the rule. Whether Xi will be able to exert his will over that group remains to be seen.
For several years, the PLA has been striking off on its own, ignoring the dictates of China’s political leaders despite the principle set down by China’s revolutionary leader, Mao Zedong, that “the party controls the gun.”
“President Xi has most likely been going out to military places to reinforce his role as commander-in-chief of the PLA,” Locklear said. “”From the reports we read, he has taken a hard line on corruption in the PLA.” In the Chinese press, allegations of corruption include bribery, misuse of military authority, and lavish entertainment.
At the same time, Xi has sought to gain control over the maritime agencies known as the Nine Dragons, mythical monsters that stir up the sea. Locklear said President Xi had established a bureau to coordinate the activities of the various units operating in the South China and East Seas.
The Bureau of Fisheries, China Marine Surveillance, Maritime Safety Administration, Coast Guard, and several local governments now report to the new bureau. They have been patrolling with a lack of coordination that has caused turmoil for the Chinese government and governments on the shores of the sea.
The critical question is miscalculation, either by an official not experienced in dealing with foreigners or a ship captain who loses control. Xi has evidently found it necessary to streamline controls over those bureaucratic centers because he wants to preclude a miscalculation that could have unintended consequences.