Still reeling from the impacts of Hurricanes Lala, Lowell and Nolo, Hawaiʻi has barely started to take stock of the cost of a turbulent storm season. Now, experts at the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization have taken a look at how the extreme weather is combining with global economic forces to impact one sector of the state’s economy: tourism.

It isn’t what business owners and tourism officials were hoping for. 

High fuel prices due to the war with Iran have driven up the cost of flights and left people with less disposable income to spend on a Hawaiʻi vacation. Researchers say that increased cost, plus the unpredictability of the weather this year, has led to a drop in the number of tourists in the state on any given day. And it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

Kauaʻi is in a particularly rough spot, with UHERO predicting a whopping 6% decline this year in the number of visitors arriving to the island, which was hit hard by Hurricane Lowell earlier this month. 

Oʻahu, Kauaʻi See Drop In Visitor Arrivals 

Extreme weather is already having a profound impact on tourism this year, particularly on Kauaʻi. The Līhuʻe airport was temporarily closed in anticipation of Hurricane Lowell and later ran on generators thanks to widespread power outages related to the storm. Tourism officials asked visitors to temporarily stay away from the island while recovery efforts got underway. 

Hotels and short-term rentals on Kauaʻi are predicted to be at 60.9% occupancy this year, compared to 64% last year. Economists at UHERO expect the island will receive almost 100,000 fewer visitors in 2026 than last year. Oʻahu is also expected to have almost 150,000 fewer tourists this year than last year, a 2.6% decrease. 

Statewide, UHERO predicts that the number of visitors will have declined by about half a percent by the end of 2026, compared to last year. On top of that, people are booking shorter stays. That, according to UHERO’s report, translates to fewer tourists in the state on an average day.

Maui is a bright spot in the state’s tourism projections. So far this year, the number of visitors is more than 8% higher than it was during the same period last year as the island continues to recover from a precipitous decline following the 2023 wildfires. Hotel occupancy is up 6%. By the end of the year, UHERO is expecting Maui’s tourism to be up 5% compared to last year.  

Hawaiʻi County also is expected to see a slight increase in annual visitors, although the UHERO report does not account for the latest storm, Hurricane Nolo, which led to numerous flight cancellations.

More: Fewer Tourists, But They’re Spending More. Is This What Hawaiʻi Wanted?

Visitor Numbers Expected To Bounce Back 

Before the hurricanes this summer, Hawaiʻi was already on track to see a slight decline in the number of total visitors arriving to the state, according to UHERO. With the extreme weather and protracted war with Iran fueling energy prices, that decrease is now likely to be more dramatic. 

But the slump is expected to be temporary. As energy prices stabilize and storms ease, UHERO predicts tourism will rebound next year. That, however, is contingent on declining energy prices as the war with Iran develops and a mild El Niño, which seems unlikely since it is forecast to be among the most extreme on record.

Fewer Tourists Means Fewer Dollars 

Hotel rooms got slightly more expensive in 2026, up by about $4 to an average of $369.80 a night, according to UHERO.

Despite that, the researchers believe the amount of money tourists are spending in the state will take a dive this year. Last year, tourism brought in more than $21.5 billion. UHERO estimates that number will be about $345 million lower in 2026.

Economists anticipate visitor expenditures will be back on track with an upward trajectory next year, even surpassing last year’s total.